Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-7-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Kiwi Pared Gains after Employment Data and RBNZ Wheeler Comments on Intervention

New Zealand dollar pares back much of this week's gain after disappointing job data and comments from RBNZ governor Wheeler. New Zealand employment rose more than expected by 0.9% qoq in Q1 versus consensus of 0.6% qoq while Q4's figure was revised down from 1.1% qoq to 1.0% qoq. However, unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0% versus consensus of a fall to 5.8%. That's due to improvement in participation rate, which rose to record of 69.3% in Q1, comparing to Q4's 68.9%. Some economists argued while the job market would continue to grow, the supply of labor would also be growing too. And as a result, improvement in unemployment rate would only be gradual this year.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8189; (P) 0.8208; (R1) 0.8222; More...

EUR/GBP is staying above 0.8193 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.8258 resistance intact, fall from 0.8399 is expected to continue and below 0.8193 will target 0.8157 key support level. The cross is staying inside medium term falling channel and decisive break of 0.8157 will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.8258 will indicate completion of the fall from 0.8399 and will bring rebound back to 0.8309 first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 6.00% 5.80% 6.00%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.60% 1.10% 1.00%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr -1.40% -1.70%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
1:30 AUD Retail sales M/M Mar 0.10% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 3.20% 3.20%
6:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Mar 0.30% 0.60%
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Apr 437.9B
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar 3.90% -11.60%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P -0.90% 1.80%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P 2.30% -0.10%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head north and offers and stops at 1.3940-50 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3975, followed by mixture of offers and stops in good size at 1.4000-10. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3900-10, 1.3875-85 and 1.3850, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3825-35, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3800, more buy orders are expected at 1.3775 and 1.3750-60 (more stops below both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8220

The single currency has slipped again today and indicated support at 0.8191 needs to hold to retain our near term bullishness for another rebound to take place later this week, above 0.8233-35 resistance would bring test of last week's high of 0.8259, break there would suggest low is possibly formed, bring at least a retracement of recent fall to 0.8283-85 but break of resistance at 0.8310-15 is needed to signal recent decline has ended

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0930

Current selloff signals the rebound from 1.0858 has ended at 1.1053 and downside bias is seen for a retest of said support, however, break there is needed to signal recent fall from 1.1279 has resumed for at least a stronger retracement of early upmove for further weakness to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but reckon near term oversold condition would limit downside to 1.0690-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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