Thursday, May 22, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-22-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Stays Firm after Mixed Job Data, Euro Weighed Down by PMIs

Dollar remains mildly firm against other major currencies in spite of mixed job data. Initial jobless claims rose to 326k in the week ended May 17, versus consensus of 310k. Continuing claims, however, dropped by 13k to 2.65m in the week ended May 10, hitting the lowest level since 2007. Nonetheless, dollar's momentum is being limited since yesterday's FOMC minutes. The minutes, attributed weakness in the first quarter GDP growth mostly to extreme weather. Therefore, while they revised lower the growth outlook for 1H14, the full year forecast stayed unchanged. The members in general expected economic growth to pick up continuously, yet gradually. They believed slack capacity remained elevated while inflation was still low. Concerning the normalization of monetary policy, the central bank discussed tools such as overnight reverse repo facility, IOER and term deposits

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3638; (P) 1.3681 (R1) 1.3727; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.3733 minor resistance intact. Recent development suggests that the larger up trend has completed at 1.3993 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, with break of channel support. Further fall should be seen to 1.3476 key support level for confirmation of this bearish case. On the upside, above 1.3733 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring consolidations first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations May 4.40% 2.40% 4.20%
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI May P 49.7 48.3 48.1
07:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI May P 49.3 51 51.2
07:00 EUR French Services PMI May P 49.2 50.2 50.4
07:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI May P 52.9 54 54.1
07:30 EUR German Services PMI May P 56.4 54.5 54.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P 52.5 53.2 53.4
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI May P 53.5 53 53.1
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 P 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Mar 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr 9.6B 3.4B 4.9B 6.1B
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders May 0 3 -1
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.10% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Mar 0.10% 0.30% 0.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 17) 326K 310K 297K 298K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Apr 4.68M 4.59M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Apr 0.30% 0.80%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 105B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly and buy orders are still seen from 1.3650 down to 1.3630, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3620-30, fresh demand is seen at 1.3600-10 with more stops expected below figure. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.3690-00 and 1.3720-30 with stops placed above 1.3735, more sell orders are expected at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above), selling interest in good size is located at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and further out at 1.3850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6850

Yesterday's rally to 1.6921 suggests the fall from 1.6996 has ended at 1.6732 and near term upside bias is seen for the rise from 1.6732 to extend further gain to 1.6938, then 1.6950, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.6975 and price should falter well below said recent high of 1.6996 and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3700

As the single currency broke below last week's low of 1.3648, lack of follow through selling and the rebound from 1.3635 in NY suggest consolidation would be seen but upside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.3699-1.3706) and bring another decline later, break of said support at 1.3635 would extend recent decline from 1.3993 top towards 1.3600, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3560-65

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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