Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-6-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Greenback Sold Off Broadly, Dollar Index Heading Back to 2013 low

Dollar weakens broadly today as sellers finally gather momentum. Euro and sterling are supported by positive economic data, they are not having relative strength against commodity currencies. European yen crosses are mildly higher but are stuck in tight range so far. So, today's moves are so far rather dollar centered. The dollar index finally takes out 79.27 support today and reaches as log as 79.06 in early US session. The development confirms resume of recent decline and further fall should be seen to key support level at 78.72/79.00. It should be noted that such cluster support represents an important long term level. 78.72 represents a long term fibonacci level while 79.00 was 2013 low. Sustained break there will confirm complete of the multi year rally from 72.69 and will open up the case for medium term decline towards lower trend line support at around 75. And, based on current momentum, this 78.72/79.00 looks rather vulnerable now.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6851; (P) 1.6867; (R1) 1.6881; More...

GBP/USD's rally resumes today by taking out 1.6918 temporary top and reaches as high as 1.6988 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and the larger up trend from 1.4813 should extend to 1.7043 key resistance. We'll start to be cautious on topping above there. Meanwhile, below 1.6918 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6819 resistance turned support holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar 0.73B 1.10B 1.20B 1.26B
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Apr F 53.1 53.1 53.1
08:30 GBP Services PMI Apr 58.7 57.9 57.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.30% -0.20% 0.40% 0.10%
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Mar 0.1B 0.4B 0.29B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Mar -40.4B -40.1B -$42.3B
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr 54.5 55.2
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head north and offers and stops at 1.3940-50 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3975, followed by mixture of offers and stops in good size at 1.4000-10. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3900-10, 1.3875-85 and 1.3850, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3825-35, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3800, more buy orders are expected at 1.3775 and 1.3750-60 (more stops below both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6935

Cable found renewed buying interest at 1.6854 (missed our entry of 1.6845) and has rallied today, adding credence to our view that medium term uptrend has resumed and further gain to psychological resistance at 1.7000 would be seen, above there would extend rise towards  previous chart resistance at 1.7044 (2009 high), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond this level.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3900

As he single currency has surged again after finding support at 1.3865 yesterday and broke above resistance at 1.3906, suggesting recent upmove has resumed and further gain towards recent high of 1.3967 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 1.4000 and reckon 1.4040-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen bring a retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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