Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-14-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Remains Weak on Policy Expectation, Sterling Watches BoE Inflation Report

The Japanese yen, Euro and Swiss Franc remain the weakest currency this week so far. Euro continues to feel the pressure from expectation that ECB would ease further policy in June and fresh selling was seen yesterday. That was triggered by reports that Bundesbank, the most hawkish member of ECB, is willing to support further easing and that could have cleared an important hurdle for ECB president Draghi. Markets seem to be pricing in a done deal and the question is now on what "package" of stimulus measures would be adopted. That could include negative rates or even quantitative easing. ECB officials comments would be scrutinize heavily, in particular, German Bundesbank Weidmann will speak later today.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8127; (P) 0.8150; (R1) 0.8166; More...

EUR/GBP's decline continued and met 61.8% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.8135 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall should extend to 100% projection at 0.7972 next. On the upside, break of 0.8197 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q1 0.70% 0.90% 1.20% 1.40%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Apr 4.10% 4.00% 1.70%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr F -0.20% -0.20%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr F 1.30% 1.30%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr P 41.80%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Mar 6.80% 6.90%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Apr 3.30% 3.40%
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Apr -30.0K -30.4K
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) May 7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.30% 0.20%
9:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
12:30 USD PPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.50%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Apr 1.70% 1.40%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.60%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.40% 1.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again in European session, bids at 1.3745-50, 1.3735 and 1.3710-20 together with stops below 1.3700 were cleared, however, fresh demand is tipped at 1.3685 and further out at 1.3650-60. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3745-55 and in good size at 1.3780-85 (stops above), more sell orders are expected at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and 1.3850, selling interest is likely to emerge further out at 1.3875, 1.3900 and 1.3935.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8190

The single currency has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 0.8158, suggesting recent decline is still in progress and recent selloff is now unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c)-(x)-(a)-(b)-(c) with wave (x) ended at 0.8400, hence the 2nd wave (a) is in progress for further weakness to 0.8120-30 and possibly towards 0.8100, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8080 and reckon 0.8050 would hold from here, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0955

Although the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 1.0926, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0875 and near term upside risk remains for the rebound from last week's low of 1.0814 to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.0950-60, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0985-90 and resistance at 1.1006 should cap upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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