Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-28-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens Mildly as German Unemployment Rose

Euro dips mildly against dollar and yen today after German data showed that unemployment unexpectedly rose 24k in May, versus expectation of -14k fall. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. While EUR/USD breached 1.3612 temporary low, loss is so far limited. Indeed, the common currency is higher against Sterling and Aussie. There is some support from confidence indicates from Eurozone. Business climate rose to 0.37 in May versus expectation of 0.35. Economic confidence rose to 102.7 versus consensus of 102.2. Industrial confidence rose to -3 versus expectation of -4. Consumer confidence rose to -7.1. Services confidence rose to 3.8 versus expectation of 3.5. Also released from Eurozone, M3 money supply rose 0.8% yoy in April versus expectation of 1.2% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8942; (P) 0.8961; (R1) 0.8986; More....

USD/CHF's rally continues to 0.8988 so far today. Upside momentum remains unconvincing. But as long as 0.8937 minor support holds, further rise is still expected. A double bottom (0.8698, 0.8702) could have formed which indicates trend reversal. But so far, we're not seeing the momentum needed in a double bottom reversal yet. We'd still prefer to see sustained trading above 0.8952 to confirm. so far, we're not seeing the momentum needed in a double bottom reversal yet. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 0.9156 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.8937 minor support will retain the view that price action from 0.8698 is merely a consolidation pattern and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8698 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr -0.50% 0.00%
5:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.60% 0.20%
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Apr 1.72 1.84
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change May 24K -14K -25K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate May 6.70% 6.70% 6.70%
8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr 0.80% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence May 102.7 102.2 102
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence May -3 -4 -3.6 -3.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May F -7.1 -7.1 -8.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence May 3.8 3.5 3.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator May 0.37 0.35 0.27 0.28
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales May 16 36 30
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again today, bids and stops at 1.3600-10 were tripped, however, some buying interest is located at 1.3585 and further out at 1.3550-55 (more stops below barrier at 1.3550). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3630-40 and from 1.3660 up to 1.3700, more sell orders are expected at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735, selling interest is seen at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6780

As cable's decline has gathered momentum and broke below previous support at 1.6732, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.6996 earlier and downside bias remains for the decline from there to bning further weakness to 1.6708 (1.618 times projection of 1.6921-1.6813 measuring from 1.6882), then towards  previous chart support at 1.6660, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6655-57

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.40

Despite yesterday's rise to 102.14, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 102.12 and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and minor correction would take place, however, downside should be limited to 101.35-40 would bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend the rise from 100.82 towards previous resistance at 102.36, break there would encourage for headway to 102.49-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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