Sunday, May 4, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-5-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Rises Broadly as Risk Sentiments Weighed Down by China and Ukraine

The Japanese yen is broadly higher as the week starts as Asian equities are genearlly pressued by risk aversion. Sentiments were weighed down by the concern over tensions in Ukraine and disappointing data from China. At the time of writing, Nieekie is down -27 pts or -0.2%, HK HSI down -290 pts, or -1.3%. Technically, USD/JPY breached 101.95 minor support today which should now pave the way for a test on 101.32 support. AUD/JPY, meanwhile, broke a minor support at 94.51 to resume recent decline. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however, are staying in familiar range in spite of today's selloff. Today's focus will be on 141.11 in EUR/JPY and 171.25 in GBP/JPY and break of these levels would likely trigger more broad based strength in the Japanese yen.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.87; (P) 102.44; (R1) 102.75; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 103.01 continues today and break of 101.95 indicates that recovery from 101.32 has completed already. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 101.32. Break will resume the fall from 104.12 and likely that from 105.41 too. In such case, deeper fall should be seen through 100.75 low to 100% projection of 104.12 to 101.32 from 103.01 at 100.21 next. On the upside, break of 103.01 will dampen the bearish case and extend the consolidation pattern from 100.75 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Apr 0.40% 0.20%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar -3.50% 2.00% -5.00%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr F 48.1 48.4 48.3
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May 14.2 14.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Mar -0.20% -0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar -1.70% -1.70%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Apr 54.3 53.1
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped on dollar's broad-based strength after the release of much stronger-than-expected US job data, bids at 1.3850 and 1.3820-30 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3800 is in focus, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3775 and 1.3750-60 (more stops below both levels). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3840-50 and in good size at 1.3870-75 (some stops above), more sell orders are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops placed above barrier at 1.3900, more sell orders are located at 1.3915-25, 1.3940-50 and 1.3975.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3840

Failure to extend intra-day selloff and current rebound on soft US data dampened our bearishness, however, as long as 1.3875 holds, prospect of another fall remains, below 1.3810 would add credence to our view top is possibly formed at 1.3889, bring weakness towards this week's low of 1.3775 but break there is needed to signal fall from 1.3906 has resumed for weakness towards 1.3740-45 later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8220

The single currency has remained confined within a narrow range and further sideways trading is in store, however, as long as indicated support at 0.8191 holds, near term bullishness remains and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of this week's high of 0.8259, above there would suggest low is possibly formed, bring at least a retracement of recent fall to 0.8283-85

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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