Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-3-14

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Mid-Day Report: CAD Recovers as BoC Sounds Positive, Dollar Retreats as Russia and Ukraine Cease-fire

Canadian dollar recovers against the greenback in early US session after BoC left interests unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. In the accompanying statement, BoC maintained its neutral stance and reiterated that the direction and timing of next change in rate will depend on incoming information. Nonetheless, regarding the economy, the central bank said that stronger growth was seen in Q2, which brought GDP almost as projected. Meanwhile, increasing number of export sectors "sectors appear to be turning the corner toward recovery". "Activity in the housing market has been stronger than anticipated". The tone was overall slightly more positive.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.51; (P) 104.86; (R1) 105.43; More...

USD/JPY retreats mildly after initial rally today. But with 104.77 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside. At this point, as price actions from 105.43 could unfold as a consolidation pattern, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 105.43 to bring reversal. Below 104.77 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 103.55/104.27 support zone first. Nonetheless, sustained break of 105.43 will confirm larger up trend resumption and will target 111.62 fibonacci level next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug -1.60% -1.90%
01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Aug 54.4 54.2
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.40% 1.10%
01:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI Aug 54.1 50
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Aug F 53.1 53.5 53.5
08:30 GBP Services PMI Aug 60.5 58.6 59.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.40% -0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 10.50% 10.90% 1.10%
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book Report
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar surged to 8-month high above psychological level at 105.00 on broad-based demand on the greenback, barrier and stops at 105.00 were tripped, more sell orders are expected from 105.25 up to 105.50 (more stops above), selling interest is tipped at 105.85 and 106.00. On the downside, bids are raised to 104.70-75, 104.50 and 104.20-25, more buy orders are reported at 104.00, 103.75-85 and 103.60-65, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 103.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6535

As the British pound has finally recovered after intra-day initial fall to 1.6445, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.6500 is likely, however, reckon previous support at 1.6537 would limit upside and bring another decline later to 1.6435-40 (1.618 times projection of 1.6845-1.6658 measuring from 1.6739) but downside is likely to be limited to 1.6390-00 and 1.6370 should hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 104.60

As the greenback has retreated after intra-day rise to 105.31, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 104.75) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 104.50-60 would limit downside and bring another rally later towards previous chart resistance at 105.44, break there would confirm medium term uptrend has resumed for headway to 105.60-70

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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