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Daily Report: BoJ on Hold, Focus on ECBEuro stays in tight range today ahead of ECB rated decision. President Draghi's dovish comments in the Jackson Hole conference weeks ago have raised speculations that it might act in September. Disappointing economic data only raised the likelihood. For instance, the final GDP estimate for Germany stayed at an unrevised -0.2% contraction in 2Q14. The reading for the 18-nation Eurozone is expected to remain flat. On inflation, PPI might deteriorated further, contracting -1.1% y/y in July after the -0.8% drop in June. Against this backdrop, we expect modest reduction of main refi rate, i.e. by -10bps, while the marginal lending and deposit rates would also be cut by the same amount. While Draghi's speech indicated that the inflation outlook has deteriorated to an extent that QE might be needed, with the TLTROs and ABS purchased not yet started, we do not see high possibility that the ECB would accelerate QE measures in coming months. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 172.13; (P) 172.74; (R1) 173.12; More..... Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as the pull back from 173.95 continues. With 171.67 support intact, further rally is still expected. Above 173.95 will target 175.36 resistance. Price actions from 175.36 could be developing into a sideway pattern. Thus, we'd be cautious on reversal from there to extend the pattern. On the downside, below 171.67 will turn bias back to the downside for 170.42 instead. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar surged to 8-month high above psychological level at 105.00 on broad-based demand on the greenback, barrier and stops at 105.00 were tripped, more sell orders are expected from 105.25 up to 105.50 (more stops above), selling interest is tipped at 105.85 and 106.00. On the downside, bids are raised to 104.70-75, 104.50 and 104.20-25, more buy orders are reported at 104.00, 103.75-85 and 103.60-65, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 103.50. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0860As the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.0943, suggesting consolidation with initial downside bias is seen and weakness to 1.0860-65 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon last week's low at 1.0811 would contain downside and bring another rebound later, above said resistance would add credence to our view that low has possibly been formed at 1.0811 last week and signal the retreat from last week's high of 1.0998 has ended Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7925As the single currency has staged a strong rebound after finding good support at 0.7892 earlier this week, adding credence to our view that low was formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for test of 0.8000, then towards resistance at 0.8036, however, breach of this level is needed to retain bullishness and extend the rise from 0.7874 (tentatively wave v trough) for retracement of early decline to 0.8050 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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