Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-24-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Under Mild after Pressure on ECB Draghi and German Ifo

Euro stays weak in tight range against dollar after ECB president Mario Draghi said that monetary policy will "remain accommodative fore long time" and the governing council is "unanimous" in using all the available tools to bring back inflation to the 2% target. And he emphasized that "the risk of doing too little is higher than the risk of doing too much." He urged Eurozone countries to implement the reforms planned for years. Meanwhile, he also noted that recent exchange rate movements of Euro "reflects the different path of monetary policies" between European and other important countries.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2827; (P) 1.2863 (R1) 1.2885; More....

EUR/USD is staying above 1.2816 temporary lor for the moment and intraday bias bias remains neutral. As long as 1.2994 resistance holds, near term outlook remain bearish . Below 1.2816 will extend the fall from 1.3993 to 1.2755 key support level. Decisive break there will target 1.2042 low next. However, note bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 1.2994 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.3202).

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Aug -472M -1125M -692M -724M
1:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Sep P 51.7 52.5 52.2
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug 1.35 1.66
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Sep 104.7 105.8 106.3
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Sep 110.5 110.6 111.1
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Sep 99.3 101.3 101.7
14:00 USD New Home Sales Aug 430K 412K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -- 3.7M
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled today in part due to the release of soft IFO data, bids at 1.2840, 1.2825-35, 1.2800 and 1.2785 were filled, however, some buy orders are seen at 1.2750 (stops below) and 1.2725, mixture of bids and stops is expected at 1.2700. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2820, 1.2840 and 1.2860-65, more sell orders are tipped at 1.2880, 1.2900 and 1.2925-30, selling interest should emerge around 1.2950, 1.2975-85 and 1.3000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6385

As cable has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.6416, suggesting top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of yesterday's low at 1.6303, however, break of support at 1.6284 is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 1.6525 and extend weakness towards support at 1.6240-46, below there would provide confirmation

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2820

The single currency tumbled in part due to the release of soft IFO data, the breach of support at 1.2816 signals recent selloff has resumed and test of previous support at 1.2745-55 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend weakness to 1.2720 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2690-00, risk rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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