Thursday, September 11, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 9-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Rally Continues Against Yen and Commodity Currencies

Dollar extends its rally against commodity currencies and yen today. Meanwhile, the greenback continues to consolidate against European majors in tight range. Dollar is supported by speculation that Fed would start signaling that rate hike is coming after next week's FOMC meeting. There was dissent among FOMC members on the language of forward guidance and both hawks and doves watched some form of re-write. In particular, markets will focus on whether Fed would drop "considerable time" from sentence of "maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends". In that case, it would be a strong signal that Fed is really ready for interest rates normalization soon.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9052; (P) 0.9134; (R1) 0.9181; More...

AUD/USD's fall resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as low as 0.9053 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, the pair have completed a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 0.9460, h: 0.9504, rs: 0.9401). Current fall from 0.9504 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.8982 and below. Based on current momentum, sustained break of 0.8982 will pave the way for retest of 0.8659 low. On the upside, break of 0.9236 support turned resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Aug 56.5 53 53.5
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F 0.20% 0.20%
8:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jul 0.60% 1.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jul 0.60% -0.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug -1.00% -0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Aug 0.40% 0.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Aug 0.30% 0.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Sep P 83.1 82.5
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jul 0.50% 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher in European session but sell orders are still noted at 1.2950-60, 1.2975-85 and 1.3000, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3035 and 1.3050-60. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2910, 1.2885-95 and 1.2840-60 area (stops below), buying interest is tipped at 1.2825, 1.2800 (stops below) and 1.2785, fresh demand should emerge at 1.2750 and 1.2725, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy again at 1.0970

The greenback only slipped to 1.0934 (we recommended to reinstate long at 1.0930 and missed our long entry) before finding renewed buying interest and the pair has rebounded again, bullishness remains for the rise from 1.0621 low to resume after consolidation and extend further gain to previous resistance at 1.1053, a firm breach above there would suggest early decline from 1.1279 top has ended at 1.0621

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6310

Although cable's rebound from yesterday's low of 1.6052 suggests near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent decline to 1.6279-83 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6644-1.6052 and previous support), reckon 1.6300-10 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.6111) would bring a retest of yesterday's low at 1.6052, break there would extend recent decline to 1.6040-45

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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