Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 9-3-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Tumbles Further on Growing Support for Scottish Independence

Sterling is so far the weakest major currency next to yen. The selloff in the pound seems accelerating after reports on the referendum on Scottish independence. It's reported that a YouGov poll showed jump in the support from pro-independence to 47% this week. That compared to 53% support of anti-independence. So, the case of independence is becoming a possibility to the markets. It's perceived that independence of Scotland would create both political and economic uncertainties. And, the future of Sterling is a major focus of debate as Scottish first minister Salmond insisted the continuation of pound in case of independence. But three other main political parties rejected that idea. There would be much more volatility in the pound ahead of the ballot on September 18.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.51; (P) 104.86; (R1) 105.43; More...

USD/JPY reaches as high as 105.30 so far as recent rally extends. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. At this point, as price actions from 105.43 could unfold as a consolidation pattern, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 105.43 to bring reversal. Below 104.77 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 103.55/104.27 support zone first. Nonetheless, sustained break of 105.43 will confirm larger up trend resumption and will target 111.62 fibonacci level next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug -1.60% -1.90%
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Aug 54.4 54.2
1:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.40% 1.10%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI Aug 54.1 50
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Aug F 53.5 53.5
8:30 GBP Services PMI Aug 58.6 59.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.30% 0.40%
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 10.90% 1.10%
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book Report
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar surged to 8-month high above psychological level at 105.00 on broad-based demand on the greenback, barrier and stops at 105.00 were tripped, more sell orders are expected from 105.25 up to 105.50 (more stops above), selling interest is tipped at 105.85 and 106.00. On the downside, bids are raised to 104.70-75, 104.50 and 104.20-25, more buy orders are reported at 104.00, 103.75-85 and 103.60-65, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 103.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7925

The single currency has finally rebounded after falling to 0.7892 yesterday, retaining our near term bullishness and another bounce to 0.7965-70 is seen, break there would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 0.8000, above there would add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to resistance at 0.8036, breach of this level would extend the rise from 0.7874 (tentatively wave v trough) for retracement of early decline to 0.8050

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0845

As the greenback has risen again after brief pullback to 1.0856, adding credence to our view that low has possibly been formed at 1.0811 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.0950, break there would signal the retreat from last week's high of 1.0998 has ended and bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm early upmove from 1.0621 low (tentatively wave c trough) has resumed

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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