Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-2-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Bullish Runs Continues as ISM Manufacturing Surges to 3 Year High

Dollar extends recent rally against yen and other major currencies in early US session after better than expected manufacturing data. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 59.0 in August, comparing to expectation of a fall to 56.8. That;s the highest reading in three years since March 2011. The employment component was also strong, dipping slightly to 58.1, just shy of last month's three year high of 58.2. Also released from US, construction spending rose 1.8% mom in July versus expectation of 0.9% mom. The greenback is set to continue recent bullish momentum.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.17; (P) 104.26; (R1) 104.42; More...

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 105.01 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally would extend to 105.41 high. At this point, as price actions from 105.41 could unfold as a consolidation pattern, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 105.41 to bring reversal. Below 104.27 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 103.55 support first. Though, sustained break of 105.41 will confirm larger up trend resumption and will target 111.62 fibonacci level next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Aug 40.50% 43.70% 42.70%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jul 2.60% 0.90% 0.40% 1.00%
01:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q2 -13.7B -13.8B -5.7B -7.8B
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jul 2.50% 1.70% -5.00% -3.80%
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 0.00% 0.50% 0.50%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Aug 64 61.5 62.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jul -0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul -1.10% -1.10% -0.80%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Aug 59 56.8 57.1
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Aug 58 59 59.5
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jul 1.80% 0.90% -1.80% -0.90%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar surged to 8-month high above psychological level at 105.00 on broad-based demand on the greenback, barrier and stops at 105.00 were tripped, more sell orders are expected from 105.25 up to 105.50 (more stops above), selling interest is tipped at 105.85 and 106.00. On the downside, bids are raised to 104.70-75, 104.50 and 104.20-25, more buy orders are reported at 104.00, 103.75-85 and 103.60-65, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 103.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6565

Current breach of last week's low at 1.6537 confirms recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.6505-10 (1.236 times projection of 1.6845-1.6658 measuring from 1.6739) and possibly towards previous support at 1.6460 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and reckon 1.6435-40 (1.618 times projection of 1.6845-1.6658 measuring from 1.6739) would hold.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 104.60

As dollar's upmove has gathered momentum, suggesting recent rise is still in progress and may extend gain to 105.00, then towards previous chart resistance at 105.44, however, break of latter level is needed to retain bullishness and extend medium term uptrend to 105.60-70, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 106.00, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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