Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 9-24-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Higher as Fed Bullard Hinted on FOMC Language Change in October

Dollar stayed in range against European majors but strengthened further against commodity currencies. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said that FOMC could drop the pledge to keep rate lows for considerable time next month. He noted that in September, it's "premature" to remove "considerable time" from the statement as QE hasn't ended yet. And, "a more natural juncture would probably be the October meeting" when "QE is projected to end." Bullard also maintained his projection that Fed would hike rate by the end of 1Q 2015. He added that Fed's projections were for "fairly strong growth" in 2H2014 and growth would be over 3% again in 2015.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1014; (P) 1.1048; (R1) 1.1111; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for retesting 1.1098 resistance. Break will resume whole rally from 1.0620 and will target a test on 1.1278 key resistance. Before that, the consolidation from 1.1098 could extend further. Below 1.0986 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0886 and below. But in that case, downside should be contained by 1.0810 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.0620 to 1.1098 at 1.0803).

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Aug -472M -1125M -692M -724M
1:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Sep P 51.7 52.5 52.2
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug -- 1.66
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Sep 105.8 106.3
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Sep 110.6 111.1
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Sep 101.3 101.7
10:00 USD New Home Sales Aug 430K 412K
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -- 3.7M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency ran into heavy offers just above 1.2900 level and has retreated in NY morning, however, bids are still noted at 1.2840, 1.2825-35 and 1.2800, more buy orders are seen at 1.2785, 1.2750 (stops below) and 1.2725, mixture of bids and stops is expected at 1.2700. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.2890-00 and 1.2925-30, selling interest should emerge around 1.2950, 1.2975-85 and 1.3000, more offers are tipped further out at 1.3025 (stops above), 1.3035 and 1.3050-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0970

As the greenback has staged a strong rebound after finding good support at 1.0887 last week, suggesting the retreat from 1.1099 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1070-75, above there would bring retest of said resistance, break there would confirm recent rise from 1.0621 low has resumed and extend gain to 1.1150, then towards 1.1200 but price should falter well below resistance at 1.1279.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7915

Euro's rebound after falling to 0.7810 last week has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7895-00 and minor resistance at 0.7915 would attract renewed selling interest, bring another decline later, a break of said support at 0.7810 would extend recent decline in wave v to 0.7790

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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