Friday, September 26, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-26-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Yen Recovery Faded on Pension Fund News

The Japanese yen pared back some of this week recovery on news that the government will push ahead with pension fund reforms. Health Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki said in Tokyo today that the government has no intention to postpone the law change on the Government Pension Investment Fund, or GPIF. That cleared market's doubt that the GPIF could be rolled back. And, with the reforms, the $1.2T GPIF would be allowed to buy more overseas assets. Technically, USD/JPY continues to struggle in range of 108.2/109.45 while maintaining near term bullish outlook.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.39; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.24; More...

USD/JPY recovered from earlier dip but is staying is tight range below 109.45. Intraday bias remains neutral for some more consolidation. Another dip cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 106.80 support and bring rally resumption. Above 109.45 will extend the larger rise to 100% projection of 96.56 to 105.43 from 101.08 at 109.95 next. Break there will pave the way to long term fibonacci level at 111.62.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Aug 3.10% 3.20% 3.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Sep 2.60% 2.70% 2.70%
22:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Economic Index Aug 0.70% 1.30% 1.20%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 8.3 8.5 8.6
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 T 4.60% 4.60% 4.20%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 T 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Sep F 85 84.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after brief drop below 1.2700, buy orders are seen at 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2650, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2620-25 and 1.2600. On the upside, offers remain at 1.2760, 1.2785 and 1.2800, more sell orders are located at 1.2825-35, 1.2850 and 1.2870-80, selling interest should emerge around 1.2900 and 1.2925-30 and 1.2950.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7885

Euro's breach of previous support at 0.7810 confirms recent decline has resumed and further weakness in wave v to 0.7770-75 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7750 and reckon 0.7725-30 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1030

Yesterday's breach of previous resistance at 1.1099 confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.1150 and possibly 1.1200 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.1279, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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