Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 9-17-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted by China Stimulus, BoE Minutes and FOMC Next

Asian markets rebounded on reports that China has broadened stimulus and the news also took Australian dollar higher. It's reported that the PBoC is injecting CNY 500b, or USD 81b into the five major state-owned banks. The intention is to boost liquidity to channel through to public housing and private businesses. The massive size of injection is seen as equivalent to 50 bps cuts in the so called reserve ration requirements for the whole banking system. Such expansion of monetary base was also seen as "printing money" and a form of quantitative easing. Economists noted that such a move was the first time in response to recent weak economic data and there could be additional steps ahead including fiscal spending.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0934; (P) 1.1003; (R1) 1.1040; More...

The retreat from 1.1098 temporary lower but outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral for some more consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0933 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.1098 will extend recent rally from 1.0620 to 100% projection of 1.0620 to 1.0997 from 1.0810 at 1.1187. Break will bring retest of 1.1278 high. Nonetheless, break of 1.0933 will turn focus to 1.0810 key near term support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q2 -1.07B -1.04B 1.41B 1.47B
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug -0.10% -0.10%
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes
8:30 GBP BoE Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 2--0--7
8:30 GBP BoE Asset Purachse Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Aug -29.7K -33.6K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 3.00%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 6.30% 6.40%
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Sep 2.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug -0.70%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F 0.30% 0.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Aug F 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug 1.90% 2.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.90% 1.90%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -$115.0B -$111.2B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 56 55
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.0M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained confined in narrow range, offers at 1.2960 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.2975-85 and 1.3000, more offers are noted at 1.3025 (stops above), 1.3035 and 1.3050-60, selling interest is expected at 1.3085, 1.3100-10 and 1.3035. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2920-25 and 1.2900-10, buy orders are still seen at 1.2885-95 and 1.2850-60 (stops below), buying interest is tipped at 1.2825, 1.2800 and 1.2785, fresh demand is expected at 1.2750 and 1.2725, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0970

As the pair has retreated after rising marginally to 1.1099 yesterday, retaining our view that minor consolidation would be seen and correction to 1.1000 is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0960-70 and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent rise from 1.0621 low to 1.1150 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.1200 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.1279

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Buy at 106.50

Dollar's near term sideways trading below resistance at 107.39 (last week's high) is likely to continue and whilst pullback to 106.90 cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 106.65 would limit downside and previous resistance at 106.47 should hold, bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 107.50-55, however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 107.70-75

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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