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Daily Report: Dollar Surged as Markets Reprice Fed Rate Projections, Sterling Stays WeakDollar rally overnight as traders responded to a San Francisco Fed study. The report noted that "surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants." Meanwhile, "the public might not give enough weight to how dependent the central bank's guidance is on both current and incoming data." Hence, the public could underestimate the conditionality and uncertainty of interest rate projections." Some analysts noted that the markets could have been awakened by the report and had started re-pricing those rate expectations. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 105.31; (P) 105.69; (R1) 106.41; More... USD/JPY's rally resumed after brief consolidation and reached as high as 106.33 so far. Finally, the strong break of 105.43 key resistance confirmed resumption of the whole up trend from 75.56. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 96.56 to 105.43 from 101.08 at 106.56 first. Break will target 100% projection of 109.95. On the downside, break of 104.68 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound slipped again in European session and bids at 1.6125-35 and 1.6110 were filled, however, buy orders are reported at 1.6100 and 1.6075-85, more buying interest is expected at 1.6060 and further out at 1.6025-35, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.6000. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6180, 1.6200-10 and 1.6225-30, more sell orders are tipped at 1.6250, 1.6275-85 and 1.6325-35, selling interest should emerge around 1.6350, 1.6375-85 and 1.6400-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6285As the British pound has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.6103, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6219) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous support at 1.6287 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.6103 would extend recent decline towards 1.6065 Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9270As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 0.9345-50 (2 times projection of 0.9126-0.9212 measuring from 0.9176) and possibly towards 0.9385-90 (1.618 times projection of 0.9024-0.9185 measuring from 0.9126) would be seen, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9400-10, reckon 0.9440-50 would hold Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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