Friday, September 12, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Maintain Gains after Solid Retail Sales

The overall development in the forex markets is unchanged as the weekly close approaches. Dollar stays firm against commodity currencies and yen after positive economic data. Retail sales rose more than expected by 0.6% in August while ex-auto sales rose 0.3% as expected. Import price index dropped -0.9% mom in August. Other data released today saw Eurozone employment rose 0.2% qoq in Q2 while industrial production rose 1.0% mom in July. UK construction output rose 0.0% mom in July. Japan industrial production was revised up to 0.4% mom in July. New Zealand business NZ manufacturing index rose to 56.5 in August.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.75; (P) 106.97; (R1) 107.31; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 106.62 minor support intact. Current rise from 101.08 is heading to 100% projection of 96.56 to 105.43 from 101.08 at 109.95 next. On the downside, below 106.62 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 104.67 support and bring another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Aug 56.5 53 53.5
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jul 0.00% 0.60% 1.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jul 1.00% 0.60% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug -0.90% -1.00% -0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Aug 0.60% 0.40% 0.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Sep P 84.6 83.1 82.5
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jul 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar kept a firm undertone but sell orders are still noted at 107.40-50 with stops building up above barrier there, more selling interest is tipped at 107.75-80 and ahead of next barrier at 108.00 with more stops placed above, offers are expected further out at 108.25 and 108.50. On the downside, bids are raised to 107.00-10, 106.80-85 and 106.65, more buy orders are sitting at 106.40-50, 106.25 and 106.00, fresh demand should emerge around 105.85-90, 105.65 and 105.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9290

Dollar's near term sideways trading below this week's high of 0.9396 is expected to continue and although risk is seen for another corrective fall to support at 0.9315, reckon downside would be limited to previous support at 0.9287 and bring another rally, above said resistance at 0.9396 would extend recent upmove for further gain to 0.9417

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6310

As the British pound has maintained a relatively firm undertone after staging a rebound from this week's low at 1.6052, retaining our view that near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent decline to 1.6279-83 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6644-1.6052 and previous support), however, reckon 1.6300-10 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.6141) would bring a retest of said support at 1.6052, break there would extend recent decline to 1.6040-45

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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