Thursday, September 4, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 9-5-14

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Firm after ECB Shock, Focus on NFP

Dollar stays firm against against European majors after yesterday's ECB triggered selloff in euro. Focus will turn to employment data from US today. Markets are expecting the non-farm payroll report to show 216k growth in August while unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.1%. The leading indicators to NFP were generally neutral. ADP employment showed 204k growth versus expectation of 218k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped slightly from 58.2 to 58.1. Employment component of ISM non-manufacturing rose from 56.0 to 57.1. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims rose from 297k to 302k. So, overall, the leading indicators suggested that US would likely have another month of solid job growth, but that wouldn't been very spectacular.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9219; (P) 0.9273; (R1) 0.9373; More....

USD/CHF rises to as high as 0.9333 so far and the break of upper channel resistance suggests acceleration. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally should target 161.8% projection of 0.8702 to 0.9036 from 0.8855 at 0.9395 next. On the downside, below 0.9294 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But retreat should be contained above 0.9175 support and bring another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Leading Index Jul P 107.2 105.9
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jul 0.50% 0.30%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Aug 453.4B
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Aug 216K 209K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 6.10% 6.20%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 10.3K 41.7K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 7.00% 7.00%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI s.a. Aug 55.7 54.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled as ECB cut rate to 0.05%, bids at 1.3120-25, 1.3100-10, 1.3085, 1.3065, 1.3050 and barrier at 1.3000 were all tripped, not much orders are heard at the moment, some defensive bids are tipped above 1.2950 and 1.2900-10. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3030, 1.3050 and 1.3070-75, more sell orders are located at 1.3100-10 and in good size at 1.3140-50 with stops building up above 1.3160.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9255

Current rally on back of the post-ECB selloff in euro suggests recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain to 0.9315-25 (1.618 times projection of 0.9126-0.9212 measuring from 0.9176 and 1.236 times projection of 0.9024-0.9185 measuring from 0.9126), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9345-50 (2 times extension of 0.9126-0.9212 measuring from 0.9176) and price should falter below 0.9385-90

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3050

The single currency tumbled as ECB lowered interest rate, this sharp fall signals recent selloff is still in progress and may extend weakness to 1.2950 and possibly towards 1.2905-10 (1.618 times projection of 1.3993-1.3503 measuring from 1.3700), however, as this move is a bit over-extended, reckon downside would be limited and reckon 1.2875-80 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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