Thursday, September 25, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-25-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm as Fed Fisher Said Rate May Rise Sooner

Dollar remains firm in early US session after mixed economic data. Initial jobless claims dropped to 293k in the week ended September 20 and was slightly below expectation. Headline durable good orders dropped more than expected by -18.2% in August but ex-transport orders beat consensus by rising 0.7%. Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said in a conference in Rome that markets assumed that Fed will start raising interest rates between spring and summer next year. But he pointed out the rate hike could come "sooner rather than later". Also released today, Eurozone M3 rose 2.0% yoy in August while UK CPI reported sales dropped to 31 in September.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2748; (P) 1.2805 (R1) 1.2837; More....

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.2696 so far and too out 1.2755 key support level. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the current decline would now head towards next key level of 1.2042. On the upside, above 1.2793 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2994 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Aug 2.00% 1.80% 1.80%
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Sep 31 34 37
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 20) 293K 296K 280K 281K
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Aug -18.2% -17.00% 22.60%
12:30 USD Durables ex Transportation Aug 0.70% 0.50% -0.80% -0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 96B 90B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after brief drop below 1.2700, buy orders are seen at 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2650, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2620-25 and 1.2600. On the upside, offers remain at 1.2760, 1.2785 and 1.2800, more sell orders are located at 1.2825-35, 1.2850 and 1.2870-80, selling interest should emerge around 1.2900 and 1.2925-30 and 1.2950.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6385

Cable's intra-day breach of previous support at 1.6284 adds credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.6525 last week and bearishness remains for the fall from there would extend weakness towards support at 1.6240-46, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal the rise from 1.6052 low has ended, bring weakness to 1.6200-10 and possibly towards 1.6162 support

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2800

The single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff and indicated support at 1.2745-55 was penetrated, adding credence to our view that recent decline is still in progress and may extend weakness towards 1.2680, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2660-65 and price should stay above 1.2640

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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