Monday, September 29, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-29-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Global Markets Down on Concerns of June 4 Style Massacre in HK

Global markets were weighed down by the tensions in Hong Kong, where police used excessive and disproportionate violence on pro-democratic demonstrators. According to most global media reports, tens of thousands of protestors demanding democracy in the city were generally peaceful and cooperative as reported by witnesses. There was no incident of violence by the protestors reported. Yet, the Hong Kong police force deployed tear smoke for as many as 87 times, and pepper spray to disperse them. The act triggered condemnations from the public, including the Hong Kong Barrister Association. Also, there were concerns that Beijing would direct the HK government to step up the suppressions, which could repeat the Tiananmen Massacre on June 4, 1989 and ruin HK's status as a global financial center. HK HSI index responded by dropping -1.9% while European indices are generally in red, with FTSE down -0.54%, DAX down -1.09% and CAC down -1.17% at the time of writing. US markets also open lower with DJIA losing over -150 pts in initial trading.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.64; (P) 109.09; (R1) 109.70; More...

USD/JPY edged higher to 109.74 earlier today but faced some pressure from 100% projection of 96.56 to 105.43 from 101.08 at 109.95 and retreated. Despite unconvincing momentum, further rise is still expected as long as 108.47 support holds. Break of 109.95 will extend recent up trend to long term fibonacci level at 111.62. On the downside, below 108.47 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back before staging another rise.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Aug 64.2K 65.0K 66.6K 66.1K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Sep 99.9 99.9 100.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep -5.5 -5.8 -5.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep F -11.4 -11.4 -11.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Sep 3.2 2.5 3.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Sep 0.07 0.1 0.16
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Sep P 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Sep P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 USD Personal Income Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Aug 0.50% 0.40% -0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Aug 0.00% -0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Aug 1.50% 1.40% 1.60%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Aug 1.50% 1.40% 1.50%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Aug -1.0% -0.50% 3.30%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after falling to 1.2664 earlier today and offers at 1.2700-10 were filled, however, sell orders are still seen at 1.2735-40 and in good size at 1.2755-65 (stops above), selling interest is expected at 1.2785 and 1.2800, offers are tipped at 1.2825-35, 1.2850 and 1.2870-80. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.2685 and 1.2660-65, buy orders are expected at 1.2650 and 1.2620-25, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2600 with stops building up below barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6350

The British pound dropped again after meeting renewed selling interest around the lower Kumo, suggesting recent decline from 1.6525 is still in progress and further weakness to 1.6200 would be seen, break there would extend weakness to 1.6162 support, however, break there is needed to confirm early rebound from 1.6052 has ended at 1.6525 and extend weakness towards 1.6100-10 later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2775

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.2664, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to the lower Kumo (now at 1.2735) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2774) would limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support would extend recent decline to 1.2640

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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