Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Blessed With Strong Risk Appetite, Dollar Broadly Lower

The first trading day of the second half of the year was dominated by strong risk appetite. Both S&P 500 and DOW surged to record high overnight. S&P 500 ended the day up 13.09 pts at 1973.32. DOW was up 129.47 pts at 16956.07, after hitting 16998.70 earlier, just missing 17000 mark. Asian equities followed and were broadly higher. In the currency markets, dollar was sold off broadly and was down against all major currencies except the Japanese yen. In particular, Sterling was boosted by solid economic data and surged to the highest level against the greenback since 2008. Sterling traders will look into construction PMI to be released in European session while dollar will look into ADP employment in US session today.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9438; (P) 0.9471; (R1) 0.9529; More...

AUD/USD's rise lost some steam after hitting 0.9054. But still, near term outlook stays bullish with 0.9387 support intact. Rally from 0.8659 has just resumed and should be in progress for medium term fibonacci level at 0.9583 next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9387 support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9211 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jun 42.60% 48.30% 45.60%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) May -1.91B -0.21B -0.12B -0.78B
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Jun 59.7 60
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M May -0.10% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y May -1.00% -1.20%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun 45.50%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jun 205K 179K
14:00 USD Factory Orders May -0.10% 0.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3670-75 (stops above) is in focus, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above 1.3705, sellers are waiting further out at 1.3725-30 and 1.3750-60. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3640 and 1.3600-10, good size buy orders remain at 1.3570-75 and 1.3545-50, more buying interest is located at 1.3520-30, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3500-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8100

Although the single currency has slipped again faltering below resistance at 0.8034 and retest of recent low at 0.7959 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to confirm decline has resumed in wave v of iii and extend further fall to 0.7940 and possibly 0.7920. Having said that, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7900 and reckon 0.7870-75 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0610

As the greenback has continued to trade near recent low, near term downside risk remains for recent decline from 1.1279 top to extend further weakness to 1.0630-35 (100% projection of 1.1279-1.0858 measuring from 1.1053), however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) and bring rebound later. Above 1.0700 would bring recovery to 1.0750-52 where renewed selling interest should emerge

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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