Monday, July 7, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-8-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Mildly Higher and Stocks Retreated

Yen strengthens mildly as US equities indices retreated from record high. Asian stocks also opened lower but quickly pared back some losses. BoJ deputy governor Nakaso said today that the central bank has an "extensive" range of tools for existing the so called quantitative and qualitative easing program (QQE). He emphasized that "the bank is still in the midst of striving to achieve the price stability target of 2% at the earliest possible time, and exit policies should be designed depending on the then-prevailing economic and inflation situation." And he noted that while BoJ is still confident to reach the 2% inflation target in two years, QQE may not be ended then as BoJ aims to sustain that inflation level.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.40; (P) 138.61; (R1) 138.79; More...

EUR/JPY weakens mildly after hitting 139.27 but it's staying in established range above 137.71 low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook is bearish with 140.09 resistance intact and another fall in expected. The cross is in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Break of 137.71 will target 136.22 support next. On the upside, break of 140.09 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 143.78 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) May 0.38T 0.17T 0.13T
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jun 8 7
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) May 16.2B 17.4B
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Jun 0.10% 0.30%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jun 0.20% 0.20%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May 1.50% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M May 0.30% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y May 3.20% 3.00%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M May 0.40% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y May 5.60% 4.40%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jun 0.90%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered in European morning in part due to the release of better-than-expected Sentix investor confidence number, offers at 1.3600 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3615-25 and 1.3640-50, more offers are located at 1.3670-80 and 1.3700 (stops above), selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3725 and 1.3750. On the downside, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3560-75 area, however, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and 1.3500-20 area with bigger stops placed below figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Turn long at 0.7860

Although last week's breach of previous support at 0.7959 signals recent impulsive decline is still in progress and may extend further weakness in wave v of iii to 0.7900, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7855-60 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place place later, above 0.7970-75 would bring correction towards 0.8000, however, reckon resistance at 0.8034 would limit upside and bring another decline later

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0570

As the greenback has recovered after holding above last week's low of 1.0621, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.0700-10 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0750-55 would limit upside and bring another decline later, a break of said support would extend recent decline to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.0570-75

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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