Friday, July 25, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-25-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rises after Durable Orders

Dollar rises against Euro in early US session after better than expected economic data. Headline durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June versus expectation of 0.4%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.8% versus expectation of 0.6%. The dollar index reaches as high as 81.01so far in early US and is testing 81.02 near term resistance. Technically, we'd maintain that 81.02/48 represents an important resistance zone for the index. Whether it could break through the zone would very much depends on whether EUR/USD could move away from 1.3476 key support decisively.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9009; (P) 0.9023; (R1) 0.9039; More....

USD/CHF's rally continues today and reaches as high as 0.9046 so far. The break of 0.9036 resistance indicate resumption of the rebound from 0.8698 low. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise should target a test on 0.9156 key resistance. On the downside, below 0.9007 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8958 resistance turned support holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jun 3.30% 3.30% 3.40%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jul 2.80% 2.70% 2.80%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jun 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Aug 9 8.9 8.9
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Jul 108 109.5 109.7
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Jul 112.9 114.5 114.8
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Jul 103.4 104.5 104.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun 1.50% 1.10% 1.00%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M May 1.00% 1.00% 0.90%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jun 0.70% 0.40% -1.00%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jun 0.80% 0.60% -0.10%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency extended recent fall to multi-month low below 1.3430, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3425 is now in focus, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3400-10, more buying interest is expected at 1.3370-80 and 1.3350. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3475-85, 1.3500 and 1.3520-30, combination of offers and stops is located at 1.3545-50, fresh selling interest is tipped at 1.3555-80 area (stops above) and 1.3600-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7050

As cable has remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff to 1.6966, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.7192 earlier last week and downside bias remains for this fall to bring retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 1.6952, break there would extend weakness towards 1.6925-30, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6900

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8980

As the greenback has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9008 yesterday, suggesting recent erratic rise from 0.8699 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 0.9050, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9065-70 and reckon resistance at 0.9082 would hold on first testing, price should falter below 0.9100, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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