Monday, July 7, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-7-14

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers as Investor Confidence Beat Expectations

Euro recovers after initial dip on better than expected confidence data. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly rose to 10.1 in July. Sentix noted that "after a four-month weakening phase, growth expectations for the euro zone are now stabilizing." And, such stabilization "coincides with the new monetary policy measures of the European Central Bank." Thought, it also emphasized that "real boost for the euro zone comes from the world economy" including improvements in US and Japan. Also released from Europe, German industrial production dropped -1.8% mom in May. Swiss unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.2% in June and Foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 449.6b in June.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8931; (P) 0.8941; (R1) 0.8951; More....

USD/CHF lost some momentum and retreats mildly today. But intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. The pull back from 0.9036 has completed at 0.8855 already. Break of 0.9036 will extend the larger rise to 0.9156 key resistance next. Meanwhile, below 0.8855 will revive the original bearish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8702 low instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Leading Index May P 105.7 105.9 106.5
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jun 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M May -1.80% 0.00% 0.20%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Jun 449.6B 445.0B 444.4B
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jul 10.1 7.8 8.5
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M May 13.80% 3.00% 1.10%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jun 52.5 48.2
14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered in European morning in part due to the release of better-than-expected Sentix investor confidence number, offers at 1.3600 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3615-25 and 1.3640-50, more offers are located at 1.3670-80 and 1.3700 (stops above), selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3725 and 1.3750. On the downside, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3560-75 area, however, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and 1.3500-20 area with bigger stops placed below figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8915

As the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief marginal rise to 0.8959, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.8931 (Friday's low) is likely, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.8915) would limit downside and bring another rise later, a firm break of said resistance would add credence to our view that recent erratic fall from 0.9037 top has ended at 0.8856 earlier last week

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3640

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day initial brief fall to 1.3576, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and recovery to the lower Kumo (now at 1.3609) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3640 would limit upside and bring another decline, a sustained break below indicated support at 1.3564-76 would signal the entire correction from 1.3503 has ended at 1.3700 last week, bring further decline to 1.3535-40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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