Friday, July 11, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-11-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Tumbles as Employment Market Contracted

Canadian dollar drops sharply in early US session after release of much worse than expected employment data. The job market contracted by -9.4k in June comparing to expectation of 24.0k. Unemployment rate also rose to 7.1% versus consensus of being unchanged at 7.0%. The data reinforce the case for BoC to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% as BoC governor Poloz expressed before that there's still plenty of slack in the economy. Economists are generally expecting the central bank to keep the interest unchanged for at least a year ahead. USD/CAD's break of 1.0693 minor resistance argues that the pair could be finally reversing recent down trends.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0636; (P) 1.0656; (R1) 1.0667; More...

USD/CAD's strong rebound and break of 1.0693 indicates that a short term bottom is formed at 1.0620 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Also the pair was close to 1.0608 cluster support level and medium term trend line. The larger corrective decline from 1.1278 could have completed too. Intraday bias is back to the upside for 1.0813 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and turn outlook bullish.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Home Loans May 0.00% -0.50% 0.00% -0.20%
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jun F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jun F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jun -9.4K 24.0K 25.8K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jun 7.10% 7.00% 7.00%
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jun $79.0B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite falling briefly below 1.3600, the single currency continued to find support just above yesterday's low of 1.3589 and has recovered, however, offers are still noted from 1.3620 up to 1.3650 with some stops placed above 1.3655-65, more sell orders are tipped further out at 1.3690-00. On the downside, bids in good size remain at 1.3575-90 area with stops building up below 1.3570, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and 1.3500-20 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8910

As the greenback found support at 0.8902 yesterday and rebounded since, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of minor resistance at 0.8938, break there would signal pullback from 0.8959 (this week's high) has ended and bring a re-visit of this level, above there would signal the rise from 0.8856 has resumed and add credence to our view that recent erratic fall from 0.9037 top has ended at 0.8856 earlier last week, bring further gain to 0.8975

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3640

As the single currency retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.3651 yesterday, retaining our bearish view that the rebound from this week's low of 1.3576 has ended at 1.3651 and weakness towards said support at 1.3576 would be seen, break there would add credence to our scenario that the entire correction from 1.3503 has ended at 1.3700 last week, bring further decline to 1.3535-40 but strong support at 1.3503-12 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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