Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-31-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Rally Halted after FOMC, Stay Bullish

Dollar stays firm today and maintain the broad based weekly gain. The cautious FOMC statement released overnight halted the greenback's GDP inspired rally. But there is no change in the overall near term bullish outlook. So far, the greenback is gaining most against the Japanese yen thanks to strong rebound in treasury yields. Aussie is feeling additional pressure today after much weaker than expected housing data. Meanwhile, Canadian dollar followed closely as recent reversal continues. The economic calendar is rather busy today, in particular with Eurozone CPI and Canadian GDP featured. But markets could be a bit cautious before tomorrow's non-farm payroll report from US.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.18; (P) 102.63; (R1) 103.23; More...

USD/JPY rose to as high as 103.08 so far and reached mentioned target of 100% projection of 100.82 to 102.79 from 101.06 at 103.03 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally could be seen towards 104.12 resistance. Nonetheless, as the pair is still bounded in the sideway pattern from 100.75, we'd be cautious on strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside. On the downside, below 102.59 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul -2 2 1
1:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 -3.00% -1.40% 3.20%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -5.00% 0.20% 9.90% 10.30%
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jun 0.40% 0.70% 0.80% 0.60%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun -11.20% -15.00%
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul -5K 9K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jul 6.70% 6.70%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 11.60% 11.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul 0.50% 0.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y (JUL A) 0.80% 0.80%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul -20.20%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M May 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 26) 306K 284K
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 63.2 62.6
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 90B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again on dollar's broad-based strength after solid US GDP data, bids at 1.3370-80 were filled but some buy orders are still noted at 1.3350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3325 and further out at 1.3300-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3400-10 and 1.3435-40, more sell orders are located from 1.3450 all the way up to 1.3500, selling interest is tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3545-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7855

The single currency has remained confined within narrow range and as long as resistance at 0.7940 holds, near term downside risk remains for a test of last week's low at 0.7874, break there would extend recent decline towards 0.7850-55, however, as this move is still viewed as the final leg of recent impulsive wave, downside should be limited and 0.7815-20 would hold, bring rebound later. A firm breach above last week's high of 0.7940 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0850

As recent rise has gathered momentum on broad-based strength in the greenback and indicated resistance at 1.0896 was penetrated, reinforcing our view that low has been formed at 1.0621 earlier this month and consolidation with upside bias remains for at least a retracement of recent decline to 1.0940-50 and possibly 1.1000, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.1050-60 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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