Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-9-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers as Markets Await FOMC

Dollar pares some of this week's loss as markets are awaiting FOMC minutes. After all, the greenback is stuck in range against other major currencies and is rather directionless in near term. While the FOMC minutes could trigger some volatility, range breakout seems unlikely. The strong employment data in June lifted the speculations that Fed could raise interest rates earlier than expected. That is, Fed could hike rates in spring of 2015, rather than fall. Nonetheless, the minutes from June's meeting could be a bit dovish as it might show that Fed is not in a hurry to remove policy stimulus. The minutes will also provide the background information for the forecast changes released after the meeting. Also, there could be some discussions regarding exit strategies.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7093; (P) 1.7120; (R1) 1.7156; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.7179 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.7062 support holds, further rise is expected. Above 1.7179 will target next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. Meanwhile, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.7062 resistance turned support will be an early sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside for 1.6952 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun -1.80% -1.40%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun 3.00% 3.00% 3.30%
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul 1.90% 0.20%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Jun 2.30% 2.40% 2.50%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Jun -1.10% -1.00% -1.40%
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jun P 34.20% 24.10%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jun 198K 190.0K 198.3K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M -3.2M
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly and sell orders are still noted at 1.3635-50 area and 1.3670-80, more offers is tipped at 1.3700 (stops above), 1.3725 and 1.3750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3600 and 1.3575-80, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3560, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and further out at 1.3500-20 area with more stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3640

Euro's rebound after finding support at 1.3599 yesterday has retained our view that further consolidation above this week's low at 1.3576 would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.3638-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3700-1.3576) cannot be ruled out before prospect of another selloff later. A break of said support at 1.3576 would add credence to our view that the entire correction from 1.3503 has ended at 1.3700 last week, bring further decline to 1.3535-40

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8910

Yesterday's retreat after meeting renewed selling interest around the Kijun-Sen has retained our view that further consolidation below this week's high of 0.8959 would be seen and another corrective fall to 0.8905-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8856-0.8959) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.8895 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would contain downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 0.8959 would signal the rise from 0.8856 is still in progress

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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