Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-8-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Retreats after Weak Production Data

Sterling pares back some of recent gains after weak economic data. Both industrial and manufacturing production came in worse than expected. Industrial production unexpectedly dropped -0.7% mom in May, following a revised 0.3% increase in the previous month. From a year ago, industrial production growth decelerated to 2.3% in May, from a downwardly revised 2.9% gain in April. Manufacturing production dropped -1.3% mom versus expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Expansion of manufacturing production eased to 3.7% yoy in May from 4.3%, down from previous estimate of 4.4%, in April. Production is expected to improve in coming months as indicated by strong readings in PMI. However, downside risks come from the pound as the strength of which should hurt the cost competitiveness of UK exports.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7101; (P) 1.7133; (R1) 1.7160; More...

GBP/USD dips mildly today as the consolidation from 1.7179 temporary top continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.7062 support holds, further rise is expected. Above 1.7179 will target next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. Meanwhile, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.7062 resistance turned support will be an early sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside for 1.6952 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) May 0.38T 0.17T 0.13T
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jun 8 7
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) May 18.8B 16.2B 17.4B 17.2B
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Jun -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jun 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May -0.60% 1.50% 0.40% 0.80%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M May -0.70% 0.30% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y May 2.30% 3.20% 3.00% 2.90%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M May -1.30% 0.40% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y May 3.70% 5.60% 4.40%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jun 0.90% 0.90%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Although the British pound fell initially after the release of weaker-than-expected UK data, as indicated bids at 1.7085 contained cable's downside and the pair has recovered, further consolidation is in store, buy orders remain at 1.7085 and 1.7050-60 (stops below 1.7050), buying interest in good size is reported at 1.7025-35 and 1.7000-10 (more stops below figure). On the upside, offers are seen at 1.7140-50 and 1.7165, mixtures of offers and stops are tipped at 1.7180-85 and 1.7200-10, selling interest is expected further out at 1.7225 and 1.7240-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3640

Although the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.3610 earlier today, break of yesterday's low at 1.3576 is needed to signal the fall from 1.3700 has resumed but only a drop below 1.3564 support would add credence to our view that the entire correction from 1.3503 has ended at 1.3700 last week, bring further decline to 1.3535-40 but reckon strong support at 1.3503-12 would hold on first testing. If said support continues to hold, then further consolidation is in store

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8915

Although the greenback continued to find support at 0.8930, break of yesterday's high of 0.8959 is needed to signal the rise from 0.8856 is still in progress and add credence to our view that recent erratic fall from 0.9037 top has ended at 0.8856 earlier last week, bring further gain to 0.8975 but only a breach of resistance at 0.9013 would provide confirmation and signal upmove has resumed for retest of 0.9037 later. If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation would be seen

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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