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Daily Report: Kiwi Tumbles as RBNZ Signals Pause and Warns of Sharp FallNew Zealand dollar drops sharply today after RBNZ hike OCR by 25bps to 3.50% as expected but signaled a pause. Governor Wheeler noted in the statement that "it is prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further towards a more-neutral level." The comments regarding exchange rate were also seen a bit strong as Wheeler noted that the level of the Kiwi is "unjustified and unsustainable" versus prior description that it's not "sustainable at current levels". RBNZ even went further as warned "there is potential for a significant fall." Markets are now pricing in for RBNZ to stand pat within this year. Also released from New Zealand, trade surplus narrowed less than expected to NZD 247m in June. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4189; (P) 1.4272; (R1) 1.4317; More... EUR/AUD's fall extends to as low as 1.4197 so far and met mentioned target of medium term fibonacci level at 1.4216. At this point, intraday bias stays on the downside for deeper decline. But again, the decline from 1.5831 is viewed as a correction. Thus, we'll start to look for reversal signal below 1.4216 and above 1.4050 key support level. Above 1.4358 resistance will be the first sign of reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4610 resistance. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound dropped again after brief bounce to 1.7095, bids at 1.7050 and 1.7025-35 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.7000-10, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6985, 1.6965 and 1.6950. On the upside, offers in good size are noted at 1.7095-00 and 1.7115-30 area, more sell orders are tipped at 1.7150, 1.7165 and 1.7185-90, selling interest is good size is located at 1.7200-10 (stops above), 1.7225 and 1.7240-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7815Although the single currency has fallen again today and near term downside risk remains for recent decline in wave v of iii to extend further weakness to 0.7855-60, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7815-20, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place place later, above resistance at 0.7933 would suggest low is possibly formed but only break of 0.7980-85 would add credence to this view Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8970As the greenback has moved higher again today after yesterday's rally above indicated resistance at 0.9013, adding credence to our view that early erratic rise from 0.8699 low is still in progress and headway to 0.9038 and possibly to 0.9060-65 would be seen, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9082 and reckon 0.9100 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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