Thursday, July 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Strong Before Long Weekend

Risk appetite was given a strong boost overnight by the strong US employment data. DOW closed 92.02 pts higher at new record high of 17068.26. S&P 500 also jumped 10.82 pts to close at new record high of 1985.44. Positive sentiments carried on in Asian session with broad based rally in equities. Meanwhile, treasury yields also jump with 30 years and 10 years yield taking out recent resistance. Dollar was bot broadly with dollar index breaking 55 days EMA, neutralizing June's bearish move. The US markets will be on holiday today and we'd likely see some consolidative trading before the week closes.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9302; (P) 0.9372; (R1) 0.9416; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current development argues that a short term top is already formed at 0.9504. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.9211 support. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD suggest that the rise from 0.8659 has completed already. But, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 holds, we'd view price actions from 0.9504 as sideway consolidation only. On the upside, above 0.9427 will bring retest of 0.9504 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M May -0.80% 3.10%
US Holiday
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled today on much stronger-than-expected US job data, bids at 1.3600-20 area were filled, however, mixture of bids and stops is still seen at 1.3560-75 and fresh demand should emerge around 1.3530 and 1.3500-10 with bigger stops placed below figure. On the upside, offers are lowered top 1.3640-50 with stops building up above 1.3665, more sell orders are located at 1.3680 and 1.3700-10, selling interest is reported at 1.3725-35 and 1.3750-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7995

Yesterday's breach of previous support at 0.7959 confirms recent decline has resumed and bearishness remains for the selloff from 0.8815 to extend further weakness in wave v of iii for weakness to 0.7920, then 0.7900, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7880 and reckon price would stay above 0.7850 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0580

Although the recovery from yesterday's low of 1.0627 suggests minor consolidation would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.0700 cannot be ruled out, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge around 1.0750-52 and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.0627 would extend one more fall to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.0570-75

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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