Monday, July 21, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-22-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Range Bound as EU Ministers Meet on Russia Sanctions

Euro stays in tight range as markets are awaiting the meeting between EU foreign ministers in Brussels today. There were expectations that EU will approve new sanctions on Russia regarding the suspected role in downing of a Malaysia Airlines flight last week. UK prime minister Cameron called for "hard-hitting" measures yesterday and said to influence Russia, there must be a sense that "the rest of the world is actually going to team up and put in place sanctions that will damage Russia's economy". However, such view might not be shared by all other EU ministers. French foreign minister played down the expectations and noted that EU would are just "expected to respond to the guidelines set out" last Wednesday, a day before the incident. There were talks that EU could just speed up the imposition of the agreed sanctions rather than expanding them. And Holland's stance would be crucial today as it suffered the greatest in the incident.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8970; (P) 0.8979; (R1) 0.8989; More....

USD/CHF stays in consolidation below 0.9003 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged. With 0.8958 support intact, we're favoring the bullish case that pull back from 0.9036 has completed at 0.8855 already. Further rally is expected to 0.9036. Break there will resume whole rise from 0.8702 and target 0.9156 key resistance next. Though, below 0.8985 will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 0.8897 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
2:00 CNY Conference Board June Leading Index June 1.30% 0.70%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M May 0.70% -4.30%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jun 2.97B 2.77B
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jun 10.3B 11.5B
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Jul 9 11
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jun 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jun 2.10% 2.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jun 2.00% 2.00%
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M May 0.10% 0.00%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jun 4.97M 4.89M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly as traders seemed reluctant to take big positions, offers are still noted at 1.3545-60 area and 1.3575-85 (stops above), more sell orders are located at 1.3600-10, 1.3625 and 1.3640-55 region, fresh selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3670-80 and 1.3700 (more stops above figure). On the downside, buy orders are reported at 1.3500-10 (stops below) and 1.3485, more buying interest is located at 1.3465, 1.3450 and 1.3425, mixture of bids and stops is tipped further out at 1.3400-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7860

Although the single currency recovered after finding support at 0.7889 last week, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7950 and near term downside risk remains for another decline, below said support at 0.7889 would extend recent decline in wave v of iii to 0.7870, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7855-60 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place place later, above 0.7980-85 would bring correction towards 0.8000

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7140

Although the British pound has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.7100, reckon last week's low at 1.7036 would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for another rebound, above 1.7100 would bring recovery to 1.7140-50 before prospect of another decline. A break of said support at 1.7036 would add credence to our view that a temporary top is possibly formed at 1.7192 and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.7000-07 support, then towards 1.6970-75

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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