Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Action Insight Mid-day Report 7-30-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Surges as on Strong Q2 GDP, FOMC Next

Dollar's rally continues in early US session after release of much strong than expect GDP data. In Q2, GDP grew at 4.0% annualized rate, the highest level since Q3 of 2013, and beat consensus of 3.1%. The solid gain more than offset Q1's -2.1% contraction, upwardly revised from prior estimate of -2.9%. The economy grew at about 1% pace for the first half of 2013. The GDP report overshadowed the disappointing ADP employment report, which showed 218k growth in private sector jobs comparing to expectation of 241k. Released from Canada, IPPI dropped -0.1% mom in June while RMPI rose 1.1% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3393; (P) 1.3418 (R1) 1.3434; More....

EUR/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.3369 in early US session and break mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397 target. Intraday bias is remains on the downside. Current fall should now target 100% projection at 1.3209 next. On the upside, above 1.3415 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3502 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jun 3.50% -4.60% -4.40%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun P -3.30% -1.00% 0.70%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jun 2.06 1.77 1.8
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul 98.1 101.1 100.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jul 102.2 101.8 102 102.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jul -3.8 -4.5 -4.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul F -8.4 -8.4 -7.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jul 3.6 4.5 4.2 4.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jul 0.17 0.2 0.22 0.21
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul P 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul P 0.80% 0.80% 1.00%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 218K 241K 281K
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 A 4.00% 3.10% -2.90% -2.10%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 A 2.00% 1.80% 1.30%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jun -0.10% 0.30% -0.50%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jun 1.10% 0.60% -0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.0M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again on dollar's broad-based strength after solid US GDP data, bids at 1.3370-80 were filled but some buy orders are still noted at 1.3350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3325 and further out at 1.3300-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3400-10 and 1.3435-40, more sell orders are located from 1.3450 all the way up to 1.3500, selling interest is tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3545-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7000

As the British pound has remained under pressure after this week's selloff from 1.7001, adding credence to our view that the fall from 1.7192 top is still in progress for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6870-80 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6850 and reckon 1.6820-25 would hold, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9040

As dollar's upmove has accelerated, adding credence to our bullish view that the erratic rise from 0.8699 low is still in progress and may extend further gain towards resistance at 0.9157, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9175-80 and reckon 0.9200 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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