Thursday, July 31, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-31-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Ignores Economic Releases, Extending Broad Rally

Dollar is regaining some momentum in early US session as it extends recent rise against Sterling, Aussie and Loonie. Economic data released from US saw initial jobless claims rose back to 302k in the week ended July 26. Continuing claims also rose back to 2.54m in the week ended July 18. Employment cost index rose 0.7% in Q2. Challenger report showed 24.4% yoy rise in planned layoffs in July. But overall, markets seemed to have paid little attention to the data and looks set to bid the dollar further up ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. Released from Canada, GDP rose more than expected by 0.4% mom in May versus consensus of 0.3% mom but that provided no support to the falling loonie.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6882; (P) 1.6918; (R1) 1.6948; More...

GBP/USD's fall extends to as low as 1.6860 in early US session and the decline from 1.7190 continues. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, a medium term could be formed at 1.7190 already and the trend is reversing. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.6692 key support level for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6928 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.7058 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul -2 2 1
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 -3.00% -1.40% 3.20%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -5.00% 0.20% 9.90% 10.30%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jun 0.40% 0.70% 0.80% 0.60%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun -9.50% -11.20% -15.00%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul -12K -5K 9K 7K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jul 6.70% 6.70% 6.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 11.50% 11.60% 11.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul 0.40% 0.50% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y (JUL A) 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul 24.40% -20.20%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M May 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.70% 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 26) 302K 306K 284K 279K
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 52.6 63.2 62.6
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 90B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly after falling to 1.3367 yesterday, offers are still noted at 1.3400 and from 1.3420 up to 1.3450 (stops above), more sell orders are located at 1.3470-80, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.3490-00, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3520-30. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3370, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3350 barrier, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3325 and further out at 1.3300-10 with stops placed below another barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6950

As the British pound has remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff, adding credence to our bearish view that recent decline from 1.7192 top is still in progress for retracement of early upmove and further weakness to 1.6840-50 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6820-25 and reckon 1.6800 would hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.55

As dollar has eased after rising to 103.09 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 102.60) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 102.40-45 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 103.09 would extend recent rise to 103.30 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 103.50-60

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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