Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-10-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Lower after FOMC Minutes, BoE Watched

Dollar weakened mildly after the FOMC minutes released overnight. But it's staying in familiar range so far as there was no decisive momentum for a breakout yet. The FOMC minutes for the June meeting was non-eventful with policymakers giving little guidance on the expected timing of any rate hike cycle. It was revealed in the minutes that the Fed would make a US$15B final reduction at its October meeting. Yet, the conclusion of the program has nothing to do with the timing of the first rate hike. The Fed reiterated that the policy rate would remain near zero for a "considerable time". The general economic outlook of the Committee was more or less the same as that in March. Despite the downward revision to 2014 growth outlook, most members did that to reflect the weak GDP report in 1Q14. They mainly kept the remainder of their forward-looking estimates unchanged.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7941; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7960; More...

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.7914 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.8033 resistance intact. Current fall is expected to continue and below 0.7914 would target 168.1% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.7708 next, which is close to key long term support level of 0.7693. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 0.8033 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jun 53.3 52.7 52.6
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jun 53% 55% 57% 56%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% 0.30%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M May 0.90% 1.70% -5.40% -5.70%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M May -19.50% 0.70% -9.10%
1:30 AUD Employment Change Jun 15.9K 12.0K -4.8K
1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jun 6.00% 5.90% 5.80%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jun 40.3 39.3
8:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May -9.0B -8.9B
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target Jul 375B 375B
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M May 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 5) 316K 315K
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories May 0.60% 1.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 100B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly and sell orders are still noted at 1.3635-50 area and 1.3670-80, more offers is tipped at 1.3700 (stops above), 1.3725 and 1.3750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3600 and 1.3575-80, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3560, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and further out at 1.3500-20 area with more stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0570

Although the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance at 1.0694 yesterday, break of last week's low at 1.0621 is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.0570-75 (1.618 times projection of 1.1053-1.0814 measuring from 1.0960), however, the pair is likely to find good support above 1.0550 and stage a much-needed corrective rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Turn long at 0.7860

Although euro's recovery after holding above this week's low at 0.7915 has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen, reckon 0.7980-85 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for recent impulsive decline to extend further weakness in wave v of iii to 0.7900, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7855-60 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place place later, above 0.7980-85 would bring correction towards 0.8000

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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