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Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Lower after FOMC Minutes, BoE WatchedDollar weakened mildly after the FOMC minutes released overnight. But it's staying in familiar range so far as there was no decisive momentum for a breakout yet. The FOMC minutes for the June meeting was non-eventful with policymakers giving little guidance on the expected timing of any rate hike cycle. It was revealed in the minutes that the Fed would make a US$15B final reduction at its October meeting. Yet, the conclusion of the program has nothing to do with the timing of the first rate hike. The Fed reiterated that the policy rate would remain near zero for a "considerable time". The general economic outlook of the Committee was more or less the same as that in March. Despite the downward revision to 2014 growth outlook, most members did that to reflect the weak GDP report in 1Q14. They mainly kept the remainder of their forward-looking estimates unchanged. | |
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EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7941; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7960; More... EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.7914 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.8033 resistance intact. Current fall is expected to continue and below 0.7914 would target 168.1% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.7708 next, which is close to key long term support level of 0.7693. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 0.8033 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency traded narrowly and sell orders are still noted at 1.3635-50 area and 1.3670-80, more offers is tipped at 1.3700 (stops above), 1.3725 and 1.3750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3600 and 1.3575-80, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3560, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3540-50 and further out at 1.3500-20 area with more stops placed below 1.3500. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0570Although the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance at 1.0694 yesterday, break of last week's low at 1.0621 is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.0570-75 (1.618 times projection of 1.1053-1.0814 measuring from 1.0960), however, the pair is likely to find good support above 1.0550 and stage a much-needed corrective rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Turn long at 0.7860Although euro's recovery after holding above this week's low at 0.7915 has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen, reckon 0.7980-85 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for recent impulsive decline to extend further weakness in wave v of iii to 0.7900, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7855-60 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place place later, above 0.7980-85 would bring correction towards 0.8000 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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