Thursday, January 9, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-9-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Dips as Draghi Said ECB Will Act on Worsening Inflation or Money Market Tightening Euro weakens against other major currencies in reaction to ECB president Draghi's comment during the post meeting press conference. The central bank held policies unchanged as widely expected. Draghi reiterated the forward guidance and expected "key ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". And, he noted "two contingencies" that could lead ECB to act on interest rates. One being the "unwarranted tightening of the short term money markets". Another being "worsening our medium term outlook for inflation". Meanwhile, he warned that the Eurozone "may experience a prolonged period of low inflation". And, risks on economic outlook are "on the downside" with developments in global money and financial markets having potential negative effects. He also noted that "with regard to money market conditions and their potential impact on our monetary policy stance, we are monitoring developments closely and are ready to consider all available instruments." Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3540; (P) 1.3587 (R1) 1.3621; More.... No change in EUR/USD as the pair dips mildly on ECB Draghi's comments. Intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.3656 minor resistance intact. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, the rise from 1.2755 might be completed at 1.3892. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2755 to 1.3892 at 1.3458 first. On the upside, above 1.3656 minor resistance will bring recovery. But risk will stays on the downside in near term. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

2014 Elliott Wave Forecast

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	Building Permits M/M Nov	11.10%		-0.60%	0.30%
00:30	AUD	Retail Sales M/M Nov	0.70%	0.40%	0.50%
00:30	AUD	Building Approvals M/M Nov	-1.50%	-3.00%	-1.80%	-1.60%
01:30	CNY	CPI Y/Y Dec	2.50%	2.70%	3.00%
01:30	CNY	PPI Y/Y Dec	-1.40%	-1.30%	-1.40%
09:30	GBP	Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Nov	-9.4B	-9.4B	-9.7B
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Economic Confidence Dec	100	99	98.5	98.4
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Industrial Confidence Dec	-3.4	-3.3	-3.9
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec F	-13.6	-13.6	-13.6
11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production M/M Nov	1.90%	1.50%	-1.20%
12:00	GBP	BoE Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Target Jan	375B	375B	375B
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Dec	-5.90%		-20.60%
12:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
13:15	CAD	Housing Starts Dec	190K	196K	192.2K	198K
13:30	CAD	Building Permits M/M Nov	-6.70%	-2.30%	7.40%
13:30	CAD	New Housing Price Index M/M Nov	0.00%	0.20%	0.10%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 4)	330K	337K	339K	345K
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-97B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped in reaction to comments from ECB's Draghi on monetary policy, bids at 1.3580 and 1.3550-60 were filled, stops below 1.3545-50 are now in focus, more buy orders are expected at 1.3525-30 with bigger stops building up below 1.3520, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500 and further out at 1.3485. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3585 and 1.3600-10 with combination of offers and stops located at 1.3635-40, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3660-70 (stops are placed above there), selling interest is expected at 1.3680 and further out at 1.3700.

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6520

Yesterday's cross-inspired rebound adds credence to our view that the decline from 1.6604 has formed a temporary low at 1.6338 earlier this week and consolidation above this level is seen with mild upside bias for recovery to 1.6502-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6604-1.6338), however, reckon 1.6520-25 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of 1.6400 would suggest an top is formed

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9125

Despite yesterday's resumption of recent upmove to 0.9127, as recent upmove is losing momentum, still reckon upside would be limited to previous resistance at 0.9132 and bring retreat later, below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9065) would bring test of support at 0.9020, break there would suggest a temporary top is formed, bring correction towards support at 0.8988