Monday, January 13, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-14-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Yen Strength Continues, Euro Supported by Italian Auctions

Yen strength remains the main theme in the markets as the week starts. Sterling is, on the other hand, the weakest currency so far on concern of slowdown in the recovery. Euro, on the other hand, is firm after positive Italian bond auctions. Italian treasury sold EUR 8.2b in bonds today, the biggest auction since May 2011, close to maximum target of EUR 8.25b. That include EUR 4b in a new three year note which was sold at 1.51% yield, down from prior 1.79% and hit a record low. Bid-to-cover ratio, though, dropped to 1.38, comparing with prior 1.80. Also, EUR 1.7b in 2028 bonds were sold at 4.26% yield, bid-to-cover ratio at 1.29. EUR 2.5b in 2021 bond were sold with yield at 3.17%, bid-to-cover ratio at 1.38.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6399; (P) 1.6458; (R1) 1.6535; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.6603 is viewed as a consolidation pattern. Today's dip suggests more downside could be seen. But again, as long as 1.6126 support holds, near term outlook stays bullish and another rally is expected. Above 1.6603 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is close to 1.6476 next medium term resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.6216 will have some bearish implications and would bring deeper fall back to retest 1.5853 support.

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2014 Elliott Wave Forecast

 

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Home Loans Nov 1.10% 1.10% 1.00%
15:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Dec $0.0B -$135.2B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound dropped today since London morning on active selling by real money accounts, bids at 1.6420-30 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.6370-80 is in focus, more buy orders are located at 1.6350,1.6325-35 , and 1.6300-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6470-80 and also in good size at 1.6515-20 (stops above), more selling interest should emerge around 1.6540-50 with stops placed above 1.6550, sell orders are located at 1.6580-00 area with some stops placed above 1.6610.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9070

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 0.9091 and tumbled on Friday on back of weaker-than-expected NFP data, justifying our bearish view that a temporary top has been formed at 0.9127 and bearishness remains for correction of the rise from 0.8799 to 0.9000-02 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8799-0.9127) and then support at 0.8988 but downside is likely to be limited to 0.8963

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3630

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after Friday's post-NFP rally to 1.3687, adding credence to our view that a temporary low is formed at 1.3548 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for correction of recent decline to 1.3721-28 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3894-1.3548 and previous support), however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3762-65

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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