Thursday, January 16, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 1-17-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Markets in Consolidation ahead of Weekend The markets are rather quiet in consolidative mode ahead of the weekend. DOW's rebound lost momentum well ahead of the 16588.25 historical high and closed down -64.93 pts at 16417.01. It will like stay in recent range for the rest of the week. The dollar index struggling around 81 level for the moment. 10 year yield took a beating and closed down at 2.843% but was held above recent low of 2.819%. The point to watch today is whether yield would tumble again and drag down yen crosses. Otherwise, the forex markets are generally staying in range trading too. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.57; (P) 142.23; (R1) 142.77; More... Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 143.17 minor resistance intact, the decline from 145.68 is still expected to extend lower. Below 140.49 will target 55 days EMA (now at 139.75) and below. Nonetheless,s break of 143.17 will argue that the correction form 145.68 has completed and bring retest of this high. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

FX Outlook 2014

Yen To Weaken Further In 2014

JPY is expected to depreciate against USD for a third consecutive year in 2014. Rate differential and better economic prospects in the US than Japan should favor the US dollar's rally. On monetary policies, the Fed has begun tapering of QE measures and an optimistic recovery path should eventually tame fears of tapering. On the other hand, it's widely anticipated that the BOJ would extend asset purchases in 1Q14, before the consumption tax hike in April. Concerning the economy, the US' recovery is expected to accelerate this year although inflation remains low. However, the increase in consumption tax in Japan would likely dampen economic activities and more stimuli are needed to boost growth. On inflation, some policymakers remain skeptical on whether inflation would reach the 2% target by FY 2015

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2014 Elliott Wave Forecast

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Consensus	Previous
05:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence Index Dec	43.4	42.5
08:15	CHF	Producer & Import Prices M/M Dec	0.20%	-0.10%
08:15	CHF	Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Dec		-0.40%
09:30	GBP	Retail Sales M/M Dec	0.50%	0.30%
13:30	USD	Housing Starts Dec	0.99M	1.09M
13:30	USD	Building Permits Dec	1.01M	1.01M
14:15	USD	Industrial Production Dec	0.20%	1.10%
14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence Jan P	83	82.5

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to find good support just below 1.3600 and has rebounded in NY morning, offers at 1.3630 and 1.3645-50 were filled but sell orders are tipped at 1.3670 and 1.3685, combination of offers and stops is seen at 1.3700, more selling interest is located at 1.3725-35 and further out at 1.3750. On the downside, bids are now seen from 1.3600 down to 1.3550, combination of bids and stops is located at 1.3530 and more buy orders are expected at 1.3500-10.

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8315

Despite yesterday's retreat to 0.8286, as euro has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 0.8285, retaining our bullishness for another test of resistance at 0.8349 (this week's high), however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that low has been formed at 0.8231 (last week's low) and extend the rebound from there for retracement of recent decline to 0.8373

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1050

Although the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.0991 yesterday, reckon support at 1.0843 would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for recent upmove to extend further gain to 1.1000-10, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1050-55 (100% projection of 1.0271-1.0737 measuring from 1.0588) and this wave v should hold below 1.1100, risk from there is seen for a strong pullback to take place later.