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Daily Report: Asian Markets Mildly Lower after Chinese Data, Yen StrengthensAsian markets are mildly flower following release of a batch of Chinese data. Japanese Nikkei, Hong Kong HSI, Shanghai SSE and Singapore Strait Times are all trading in negative territory at the time of writing. Nonetheless, losses so far very limited. Risk aversion lifts the Japanese yen generally higher. Technically, USD/JPY is finally moving away from the 4 hours 55 EMA. EUR/JPY has taken out recent support at 140.49. AUD/JPY also breached recent support at 91.05. We'd possibly see more downside in yen crosses ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 140.75; (P) 141.45; (R1) 141.94; More... EUR/JPY's decline extends today and reaches as low as 140.31 so far. The break of 140.49 confirms resumption of fall from 145.68. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 138.45 support and below. On the upside, break of 142.90 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay mildly bearish. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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Yen To Weaken Further In 2014JPY is expected to depreciate against USD for a third consecutive year in 2014. Rate differential and better economic prospects in the US than Japan should favor the US dollar's rally. On monetary policies, the Fed has begun tapering of QE measures and an optimistic recovery path should eventually tame fears of tapering. On the other hand, it's widely anticipated that the BOJ would extend asset purchases in 1Q14, before the consumption tax hike in April. Concerning the economy, the US' recovery is expected to accelerate this year although inflation remains low. However, the increase in consumption tax in Japan would likely dampen economic activities and more stimuli are needed to boost growth. On inflation, some policymakers remain skeptical on whether inflation would reach the 2% target by FY 2015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound jumped sharply in London on stronger-than-expected UK data and offers at 1.6405-10 and 1.6440-50 were filled, however, mixture of offers and stops in good size remains at 1.6465-75, more sell orders are tipped at 1.6500-20 area. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6420-30 and also at 1.6370-80, stops are raised to 1.6360 and 1.6360, combination of bids and stops remains at 1.6300-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1050As the greenback has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 1.0905 yesterday, retaining our view that near term upside risk remains for recent upmove to extend further gain to 1.1000-10, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1050-55 (100% projection of 1.0271-1.0737 measuring from 1.0588) and this wave v should hold below 1.1100 Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Hold short entered at 1.6430Cable's intra-day rally from 1.6309 on stronger-than-expected UK data suggests caution on our bearishness and resistance at 1.6464 needs to hold to retain prospect of another decline, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6384) would bring weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.6359) but break of latter level is needed to suggest the rebound from 1.6309 has ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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