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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soars as Empire State Manufacturing Beat ExpectationsDollar is gather another round of upside momentum in early US session after release of solid economic data. The empire state manufacturing index jumped sharply to 12.5 in January versus expectation of 4.5. Headline PPI accelerated to 1.2% yoy in December versus expectation of 0.8% yoy. Core PPI also accelerated to 1.4% yoy versus being unchanged at 1.3%. yoy. The greenback has now reversed all the post NFP loss against European majors and current development suggests that EUR/USD is heading back to last week's low of 1.3547 while USD/CHF is heading back to last week's high of 0.9127. GBP/USD could also head lower to 1.6126 support. Focus will turn to Fed's Beige Book economic report to be released in US afternoon. Chicago Fed Evans and Atlanta Fed Lockhart will also speak today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8996; (P) 0.9014; (R1) 0.9041; More... USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8986 extends in early US session and intraday bias remain son the upside for retesting 0.9127 resistance. Overall, we're still preferring the case that whole decline from 0.9838 has completed with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, at 0.8799. Thus, another rise is expected. Break of 0.9127 will target 0.9249 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8986 will extend the pull back to 61.8% retracement of 0.8799 to 0.9127 0.8924 first. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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Bullish in USD, Low Inflation As Downside RiskWe hold a bullish view over the US dollar for 2014, expecting it to outperform the euro and the pound, as well as to maintain the upside momentum against the Japanese yen. Fed’s announcement to begin QE tapering last December, together with relatively optimistic growth outlook of the world’s largest economy, should prove supportive for the greenback. As investors turn their focus to US economic data to gauge the Fed’s pace of tapering, strong dataflow should give further boost to the currency. Yet, the major risk to USD’s strength lies on inflation as the Fed might need to slow the pace of tapering should inflation remain low for a prolonged period. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to head south in European session, buy orders at 1.3590-00 were filled but mixtures of bids and stops are located at 1.3560-70 and in good size at 1.3540-50, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3500-10 with bigger stops building up below 1.3485-90. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3630, 1.3645-50 and 1.3685, combination of offers and stops is seen at 1.3700, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3725-35 and further out at 1.3750. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold short entered at 1.6450Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.6464, as the British pound met renewed selling interest there and has retreated, retaining our bearishness for weakness to 1.6368 but break there is needed to confirm the rebound from 1.6347 has ended and bring test of this level, then previous support at 1.6338, once this level is penetrated, this would extend early fall from 1.6604 top for correction of early upmove to 1.6316 Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 104.15Dollar has continued to surge after staging a strong rebound from 102.86 and 104.50 needs to hold to retain bearishness for a retreat to the Kijun-Sen (now at 103.88), break there would suggest intra-day top is possibly forned, bring further weakness to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 103.22), below there would signal the rebound from 102.86 has ended and bring a retest of this level Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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