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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Rebound on Hawkish FedspeaksDollar extended its broad based rebound overnight as talked up by comments of Fed officials. The dollar index was clearly lifted after dipping to 80.44 and is back at 80.87 at the time of writing. Strength in the greenback is clearly seen against Aussie and yen, which reversed much of last week's move. USD/CAD extended recent rally and continues its march to 1.1 handle. Meanwhile, Euro and Swiss franc is starting to give way too. Nonetheless, we're a bit skeptical on the sustainability of dollar's rebound in near term. It should be noted that treasury yields were just mildly higher after the sharp fall last week. 10 year yield closed at 2.869% comparing to this week's low of 2.819%. 30 year yield closed at 3.800% comparing to this week's low of 3.763%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8926; (P) 0.8992; (R1) 0.9029; More... AUD/USD faced strong resistance from the falling 55 days EMA and dropped sharply since hitting 0.9085. The development argues that consolidations from 0.8821 might be finished and the larger decline is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8821 first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 0.9757 to 0.8821 from 0.9085 at 0.8507, which is close to next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544. On the upside, break of 0.9085 should now confirm near term trend reversal. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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Bullish in USD, Low Inflation As Downside RiskWe hold a bullish view over the US dollar for 2014, expecting it to outperform the euro and the pound, as well as to maintain the upside momentum against the Japanese yen. Fed’s announcement to begin QE tapering last December, together with relatively optimistic growth outlook of the world’s largest economy, should prove supportive for the greenback. As investors turn their focus to US economic data to gauge the Fed’s pace of tapering, strong dataflow should give further boost to the currency. Yet, the major risk to USD’s strength lies on inflation as the Fed might need to slow the pace of tapering should inflation remain low for a prolonged period. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency moved higher and offers at 1.3670-90 area were filled but indicated sell orders at 1.3700 capped euro's upside so far, mixture of offers and stops is still seen above 1.3700, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3725-35 and further out at 1.3750. On the downside, buy orders are still noted at 1.3625-30 and 1.3590-00, mixtures of bids and stops are located at 1.3565-70 and in good size at 1.3540-50, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3500-10 with bigger stops building up below 1.3485-90. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8250As the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.8349 yesterday, minor consolidation below this level would be seen, however, as long as 0.8300 holds, mild upside bias remains for the rebound from temporary low at 0.8231 (last week's low) to bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8373, however, only break of resistance at 0.8393 would signal fall from 0.8467 has ended Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0800Although the greenback has rebounded after finding support at 1.0843, break of last week's high of 1.0946 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 1.1000-10, otherwise, further consolidation is in store and another pullback cannot be ruled out, below said support would bring correction to 1.0790-00 before prospect of another rally later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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