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Mid-Day Report: Yen and Franc Retreats as Emerging Markets Stabilized Further Yen and Swiss Franc retreat further against other major currencies today as risk aversion recedes on stabilization in emerging markets. The Turkish central bank pledged to take necessary measures to ensure price stability after an extraordinary meeting and the comment raised speculations that it could raise rates or impose capital controls. The Indian central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates today and lifted the Rupee. In China, the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest lender said that those who invested in the CNY 3b trust product issued by the China Credit Trust could recoup the principals. Meanwhile the China Credit Trust also said it would sell the shares in Shanxi Zhenfu Energy Group and averted the biggest trust default in China. European major indices recovered following the stabilization in Asian equities. Meanwhile DOW and S&P futures point to higher open. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.63; (P) 1102.61; (R1) 103.22; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen above 101.76 temporary low. But near term outlook stays bearish as long as 104.91 resistance holds. The whole decline from 105.41 is expected to resume sooner or later and below 101.76 will target 100.61 key support next. Break there will have larger bearish implications and confirm medium term topping at 105.41. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

FX Outlook 2014

GBP To Outperform Euro, Underperform USD

Strong economic growth in the UK should support GBP against other key European currencies, resulting in our forecasts that the pound would strengthen against both the euro and the defensive Swiss franc. UK's job market has improved significantly and the BOE would likely revised lower its threshold of unemployment rate that might lead the consideration of a rate hike. Yet, the revision should only have short-term, if any, negative impacts, on sterling. With domestic demand the key driver of recent growth, the economic environment in the country should allow greater tolerance of currency strength. We remain cautious in GBPUSD, anticipating the pair to fall this year amid expectations that US' growth would be stronger. Moreover, the Fed's kickoff of QE tapering vs BOE's sidelined stance could widen the yield differential.

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Special Reports

Emergent Market Selloff Triggered by Mix of Domestic and Global Factors

Selloff in emerging markets late last week has hit global financial markets. As investors took profits from risky assets, they parked their capitals in safe-havens, sending Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold, higher. While some attributed the selloff to Fed's tapering and concerns over China's slowdown and potential credit crunch, declines in some emerging market currencies such as Turkish lira and Argentina peso were mainly driven by domestic factors. Yet, coincidence of these factors with concerns over the Fed's tapering and China's disappointing data release might have triggered a bigger impact on the market than on any other occasions.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	CSPI Y/Y Dec	1.30%	1.10%	1.00%	1.20%
00:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence Dec	6		5	6
09:30	GBP	GDP Q/Q Q4 A	0.70%	0.80%	0.80%
09:30	GBP	Index of Services 3M/3M Nov	0.80%	0.70%	0.80%
13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders Dec	-4.30%	1.00%	3.50%
13:30	USD	Durables Ex Transportation Dec	-1.60%	0.70%	1.20%
14:00	USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov		13.70%	13.60%
15:00	USD	Consumer Confidence Jan		80	78.1

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped quite sharply in European session to a 5-day low on dollar's broad-based rebound, bids at 1.3650-60 and 1.3630-35 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3625, 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3580, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3530-40 as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3650 and 1.3670, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, 1.3715-20 and in good size at 1.3740-50 with stops building up above barrier at 1.3750, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3775-80 and further out ahead of next barrier at 1.3800.

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9000

As the greenback has staged a strong rebound after finding support at 0.8954, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 0.8903 (last week's low) to bring retracement of recent decline and gain to 0.9015-20 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9134-0.8903) cannot be ruled out before prospect of another decline. Below said support would signal an intra-day top is formed, bring test of 0.8930-35, break there would signal rebound from 0.8903 has ended and bring retest of this level

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3640

Euro met renewed selling interest at 1.3689 (just faltered below the upper Kumo) and has retreated quite sharply, suggesting the fall from 1.3740 is still in progress and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3620-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3508-1.3740) would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above said intra-day resistance at 1.3689) would signal low is formed, bring test of 1.3717