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Mid-Day Report: Yen and Franc Soar as Emerging Markets Hit by Risk AversionThe Japanese yen and Swiss franc surge broadly today as markets are hit by deep risk aversion in emerging markets. The Turkish lira dives to new record low as the central bank's USD 2b effort to curb the decline failed. Argentine peso suffered the steepest fall since 2002 crisis a triggered officials to ease currency controls. Ukraine's hryvnia tumbled to a 4-year low and South Africa's rand drops to the lowest level since 2008. Some economists attributed the selloffs to uncertainties over Fed's policy path amid tapering, as well as worries on slowdown, in particular in China. That came a day after IMF said that the growth advantages of emerging markets over advanced economics would shrink to the lowest since 2001. Also, there were concerns that China is struggling to contain the USD 4.8T shadow-banking debt. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.12; (P) 104.35; (R1) 104.73; More... USD/JPY's decline accelerates today and took out 102.85 as well as 102.49 support successively. The development firstly indicates that fall from 105.41 has resumed. More importantly, we'd again like to point out the bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. More importantly, current development raises the chance of larger trend reversal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100.61 resistance turned support next. On the upside, above 103.58 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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GBP To Outperform Euro, Underperform USDStrong economic growth in the UK should support GBP against other key European currencies, resulting in our forecasts that the pound would strengthen against both the euro and the defensive Swiss franc. UK's job market has improved significantly and the BOE would likely revised lower its threshold of unemployment rate that might lead the consideration of a rate hike. Yet, the revision should only have short-term, if any, negative impacts, on sterling. With domestic demand the key driver of recent growth, the economic environment in the country should allow greater tolerance of currency strength. We remain cautious in GBPUSD, anticipating the pair to fall this year amid expectations that US' growth would be stronger. Moreover, the Fed's kickoff of QE tapering vs BOE's sidelined stance could widen the yield differential. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 Elliott Wave Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to surge after rallying on PMI data, stops above 1.3610 and 1.3650 were tripped, however, offers are still noted at 1.3670 and 1.3685, combination of offers and stops is seen at 1.3700. On the downside, buy orders are raised to 1.3620-25, 1.3590 and in good size at 1.3530-40 as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below), more bids are expected at 1.3485, 1.3465 and 1.3450. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8200Despite yesterday's selloff to 0.8168, the subsequent rebound has retained our near term bullish view for retracement of recent decline and consolidation with upside bias remains for rebound to resistance at 0.8263 but break there is needed to signal a temporary low is formed and bring correction to 0.8300, only break of resistance at 0.8349 would confirm, bring further subsequent gain towards resistance at 0.8393 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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