Friday, January 10, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-10-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Tumbles after NFP, CAD Even Harder Hit Dollar weakens in early US session after big disappointment from employment data. The non-farm payroll reported showed merely 74k job growth in December, widely missed expectation of 193k. That's the smallest numbers since January 2011. Prior month's data was revised up from 203k to 241k but that didn't help. Also, unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% versus expectation of 7.0%, lowest since October 2008, but that's due to more people leaving the labor force. The decline in USD/JPY looks sharpest post NFP while EUR/USD also recovers. Focus will be on these levels for the rest of the session, 1.3656 in EUR/USD, 0.9001 in USD/CHF and 103.90 in USD/JPY. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0815; (P) 1.0845; (R1) 1.0872; More... USD/CAD's rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 1.0923 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. The strong break from near term channel resistance indicates acceleration and USD/CAD should now target long term trend line resistance at around 1.1 level. On the downside, below 1.0837 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook stays bullish in case of retreat. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

2014 Elliott Wave Forecast

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
00:01	GBP	BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Dec	0.40%		0.60%
05:00	JPY	Leading Index Nov P	110.8	110.8	109.8
06:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate Dec	3.20%	3.20%	3.20%
08:15	CHF	CPI M/M Dec	-0.20%	-0.10%	0.00%
08:15	CHF	CPI Y/Y Dec	0.10%	0.20%	0.10%
09:30	GBP	Industrial Production M/M Nov	0.00%	0.20%	0.40%	0.30%
09:30	GBP	Industrial Production Y/Y Nov	2.50%	2.80%	3.20%
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov	2.80%	3.20%	2.70%	2.60%
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production M/M Nov	0.00%	0.30%	0.40%	0.20%
13:30	USD	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec	74K	193K	203K	241K
13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate Dec	6.70%	7.00%	7.00%
13:30	CAD	Net Change in Employment Dec	-45.9K	13.1K	21.6K
13:30	CAD	Unemployment Rate Dec	7.20%	6.90%	6.90%
15:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate Dec	0.70%		0.80%
15:00	USD	Wholesale Inventories Nov	0.50%	0.40%	1.40%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of much weaker-than-expected NFP data, offers at 1.3620-50 area were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3670-80 (stops are placed above there), more selling interest is expected at 1.3700 and 1.3720-30. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3620 and at 1.3590-00, mixtures of bids and stops are located at 1.3565-70 and in good size at 1.3540-50, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3500-10 with bigger stops building up below 1.3485-90.

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9125

Despite intra-day bounce to 0.9091, dollar met renewed selling right at the lower Kumo and has dropped in NY morning on soft NFP data, retaining our bearishness for correction of recent upmove, break of previous support at 0.9020 would confirm our view that a temporary top is formed at 0.9127 earlier this week, bring correction towards support at 0.8988 but price should stay well above previous resistance at 0.8932