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Daily Report: Dollar Tumbled with Stocks and YieldsDollar dropped sharply overnight against yen and Europeans together with stocks and yields. DOW lost -176 pts, or -1.07% to close at 16197.35, at the lowest level in a month. Nonetheless, we might see some support before the week closes as it approaches the 55 day EMA current at 16109.58. 30 year yield lost -0.078% to close at 3.681% while 10 year yield also lost -0.087% to close at 2.773%. Both , hitting a 2+ month low. Dollar index reversed ahead of 81.48 near term resistance and is now back at around 80.50 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.12; (P) 104.35; (R1) 104.73; More... The sharp decline and break of 103.85 indicates that the correction pattern from 105.41 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 102.85 support first. Break will target 102.49 and below. Also, we'd again like to point out the bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 102.49 would have come bearish implications and could bring deeper fall to 100.61 key near term support. On the upside, break of 105.41 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in near term. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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GBP To Outperform Euro, Underperform USDStrong economic growth in the UK should support GBP against other key European currencies, resulting in our forecasts that the pound would strengthen against both the euro and the defensive Swiss franc. UK's job market has improved significantly and the BOE would likely revised lower its threshold of unemployment rate that might lead the consideration of a rate hike. Yet, the revision should only have short-term, if any, negative impacts, on sterling. With domestic demand the key driver of recent growth, the economic environment in the country should allow greater tolerance of currency strength. We remain cautious in GBPUSD, anticipating the pair to fall this year amid expectations that US' growth would be stronger. Moreover, the Fed's kickoff of QE tapering vs BOE's sidelined stance could widen the yield differential. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to surge after rallying on PMI data, stops above 1.3610 and 1.3650 were tripped, however, offers are still noted at 1.3670 and 1.3685, combination of offers and stops is seen at 1.3700. On the downside, buy orders are raised to 1.3620-25, 1.3590 and in good size at 1.3530-40 as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below), more bids are expected at 1.3485, 1.3465 and 1.3450. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8200Despite yesterday's selloff to 0.8168, the subsequent rebound has retained our near term bullish view for retracement of recent decline and consolidation with upside bias remains for rebound to resistance at 0.8263 but break there is needed to signal a temporary low is formed and bring correction to 0.8300, only break of resistance at 0.8349 would confirm, bring further subsequent gain towards resistance at 0.8393 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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