 |  |
| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
| Calendar | Elliott Wave Trades | Markets Volatility | Pivot Points | Heat Map | Daily Fundamentals |
| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Aussie Slumped after Poor Job DataAussie slumped sharply today after shockingly poor employment report. The job market contracted -22.6k in December versus expectation of 10.3k growth. The details were even worse as full time positions dropped by -31.6k while part-time positions rose by 9k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% but it should be noted that the participation rate dropped further to 64.6% from 64.8%. Overall results were disappointing and indicated labor market weakness. Before the job report, it's believed that RBA would be cautious on having another rate cut even though the bias is still easing. The central bank would opt to have lower exchange rate to stimulate the economy instead. But the weak data raised the speculations that RBA could be forced to act again even though it would at least wait for another round of job data for January before deciding. |
 |
| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8877; (P) 0.8924; (R1) 0.8960; More... AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.8798 so far today and the break of 0.8821 confirms resumption of larger decline. Intraday bias is back on the downside and deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.9757 to 0.8821 from 0.9085 at 0.8507, which is close to next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544. On the upside, above 0.8932 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stays bearish as long as 0.9085 resistance holds. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Euro to Depreciate against Most Currencies on Economic Weakness and ECB's EasingEUR outperformed major currencies last year despite economic weakness in most of the member nations in the Eurozone. The strength was mainly driven by adjustment from stretched short positioning of the single currency, underweight of European assets, repayment of cheap crisis loans to the ECB, commercial banks' repatriation of funds ahead of the year-end before an ECB Asset Quality Review (AQR), as well as Fed's implementation of QE3. For the coming year, we expect the euro's movement to be more aligned with the bloc's economic developments. The Fed has begun tapering while the ECB has turned more dovish in the last policy meeting, allowing the euro to weaken against the US dollar. While both the BOE and the ECB retained accommodative bias, more optimistic economic prospect in the UK should allow the pound to fare better than the single currency. The SNB's commitment to maintain the price floor of EURCHF at 1.2 has given the euro some rooms to rise against the franc. Bullish in USD, Low Inflation As Downside RiskWe hold a bullish view over the US dollar for 2014, expecting it to outperform the euro and the pound, as well as to maintain the upside momentum against the Japanese yen. Fed’s announcement to begin QE tapering last December, together with relatively optimistic growth outlook of the world’s largest economy, should prove supportive for the greenback. As investors turn their focus to US economic data to gauge the Fed’s pace of tapering, strong dataflow should give further boost to the currency. Yet, the major risk to USD’s strength lies on inflation as the Fed might need to slow the pace of tapering should inflation remain low for a prolonged period. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators Update | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to head south in European session, buy orders at 1.3590-00 were filled but mixtures of bids and stops are located at 1.3560-70 and in good size at 1.3540-50, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3520-30 and 1.3500-10 with bigger stops building up below 1.3485-90. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3630, 1.3645-50 and 1.3685, combination of offers and stops is seen at 1.3700, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3725-35 and further out at 1.3750. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stopped profit and buy again hereAlthough the single currency retreated after rising to 0.8349 earlier, as 0.8285 support has contained euro's downside, retaining bullishness for the rebound from 0.8231 (last week's low) to bring retracement of recent decline, above said resistance at 0.8349 would add credence to our view that low is possibly formed, bring further gain to 0.8373, however, only break of resistance at 0.8393 would signal fall from 0.8467 has ended Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1050Although the greenback has risen again after brief pullback and near term upside bias remains for recent upmove to extend further gain to 1.1000-10, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1050-55 (100% projection of 1.0271-1.0737 measuring from 1.0588), risk from there is seen for a strong pullback to take place later. Below 1.0875-80 would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring test of this week's low of 1.0843 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  |
| ||||||||
No comments:
Post a Comment