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Daily Report: Dollar Range Bound ahead of Bernanke's Last FOMC AnnouncementAsian markets are generally higher today, following the recovery in US as risk aversion waned. The Turkish central bank more than doubled its interest rates, from 4.5% to 10.0% and triggered a rebound in the lira. The India rupee also strengthened as Indian central bank unexpectedly hiked benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 7.00%. DOW rose 90.68 pts, or 0.57% to close at 15928.56 overnight. But it should be noted that DOW was kept below 16000 handle in spite of the recovery, and well below 55 days EMA at 16086. Near term risk remains on the downside. Also, treasury yields also dropped overnight with 10 year yields down -0.02% to 2.746% and 30 year yield was down -0.008% at 3.672%. Risk aversion was just eased but the sentiments haven't reversed. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1094; (P) 1.1135; (R1) 1.1193; More... The breach of 1.1173 suggests that retreat is finished at 1.1031 and recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally would be seen to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.1235. On the downside, though,, break of 1.1031 support will now indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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GBP To Outperform Euro, Underperform USDStrong economic growth in the UK should support GBP against other key European currencies, resulting in our forecasts that the pound would strengthen against both the euro and the defensive Swiss franc. UK's job market has improved significantly and the BOE would likely revised lower its threshold of unemployment rate that might lead the consideration of a rate hike. Yet, the revision should only have short-term, if any, negative impacts, on sterling. With domestic demand the key driver of recent growth, the economic environment in the country should allow greater tolerance of currency strength. We remain cautious in GBPUSD, anticipating the pair to fall this year amid expectations that US' growth would be stronger. Moreover, the Fed's kickoff of QE tapering vs BOE's sidelined stance could widen the yield differential. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Emergent Market Selloff Triggered by Mix of Domestic and Global FactorsSelloff in emerging markets late last week has hit global financial markets. As investors took profits from risky assets, they parked their capitals in safe-havens, sending Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold, higher. While some attributed the selloff to Fed's tapering and concerns over China's slowdown and potential credit crunch, declines in some emerging market currencies such as Turkish lira and Argentina peso were mainly driven by domestic factors. Yet, coincidence of these factors with concerns over the Fed's tapering and China's disappointing data release might have triggered a bigger impact on the market than on any other occasions. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency dropped quite sharply in European session to a 5-day low on dollar's broad-based rebound, bids at 1.3650-60 and 1.3630-35 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3625, 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3580, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3530-40 as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3650 and 1.3670, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, 1.3715-20 and in good size at 1.3740-50 with stops building up above barrier at 1.3750, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3775-80 and further out ahead of next barrier at 1.3800. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1070As the greenback has staged a strong rebound after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1032 yesterday, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend further gain to 1.1200, then 1.1235-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3066-0.9407) but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1275-80 and reckon price would falter below 1.1300-10 Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9000Despite intra-day strong rebound to 0.9010, as the greenback met renewed selling interest there and has retreated in US morning on weaker-than-expected US data, retaining our bearishness for recent decline to resume after consolidation, below 0.8954-59 (intra-day support and current level of the lower Kumo) would signal an intra-day top is formed, bring test of 0.8930-35, break there would signal rebound from 0.8903 has ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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