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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Jumps on Retail Sales, But Held Below ResistanceSterling was boosted by strong retail sales data released in European session and strengthened broadly. Sales including fuel grew an impressive 2.6% mom in December versus expectation of 0.5% mom. That's the strongest December reading on record since the series began back in 1996. The data was seen as a major surprise by analysts and reinforced the optimistic view of improving confidence among consumers. And that also raised the change of further improvement in unemployment rate which currently stood at 7.3% in the three months through November. BoE has clearly noted in its forward guidance that 7% level is a threshold for considering removal of policy stimulus. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6317; (P) 1.6350; (R1) 1.6385; More... GBP/USD rebounds strongly today but is kept well below 1.6603 resistance. Outlook is unchanged so far. Consolidation from 1.6603 might extend further and another fall cannot be ruled out. But again, as long as 1.6126 support holds, near term outlook stays bullish and another rally is expected. Above 1.6603 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is close to 1.6476 next medium term resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.6216 will have some bearish implications and would bring deeper fall back to retest 1.5853 support. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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Yen To Weaken Further In 2014JPY is expected to depreciate against USD for a third consecutive year in 2014. Rate differential and better economic prospects in the US than Japan should favor the US dollar's rally. On monetary policies, the Fed has begun tapering of QE measures and an optimistic recovery path should eventually tame fears of tapering. On the other hand, it's widely anticipated that the BOJ would extend asset purchases in 1Q14, before the consumption tax hike in April. Concerning the economy, the US' recovery is expected to accelerate this year although inflation remains low. However, the increase in consumption tax in Japan would likely dampen economic activities and more stimuli are needed to boost growth. On inflation, some policymakers remain skeptical on whether inflation would reach the 2% target by FY 2015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound jumped sharply in London on stronger-than-expected UK data and offers at 1.6405-10 and 1.6440-50 were filled, however, mixture of offers and stops in good size remains at 1.6465-75, more sell orders are tipped at 1.6500-20 area. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6420-30 and also at 1.6370-80, stops are raised to 1.6360 and 1.6360, combination of bids and stops remains at 1.6300-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold long entered at 141.80Despite yesterday's rise to 142.91, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen, however, if our view that low is formed at 140.50 earlier this week is correct, downside should be limited to 141.40-45 (61.8％ Fibonacci retracement of 140.50-142.91) and bring another rebound later, above said resistance at 142.91 would bring test of indicated resistance at 143.10-20 Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9100Despite yesterday's brief fall to 0.9032, lack of follow through selling on break of the lower Kumo and subsequent rebound suggest caution on our short position entered at 0.9100 but as long as 0.9092 holds, mild downside bias remains for another decline to take place later, below said intra-day support would extend the fall from 0.9108 to 0.9000-05 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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