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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm Despite Data DisappointmentDollar is firm in early US session despite weaker than expected economic data. Q4 GDO grew 3.2% annualized, missing expectation of 3.6%. Initial jobless claims also rose more than expected to 348k in January 25. Dollar recovers strongly against European majors and the Japanese yen today. The greenback is also firm against the Canadian dollar. However, dollar weakens against the Australian dollar. In other markets, while European indices are trading mildly lower today, US futures point to a higher open as Facebook soars on earnings. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6524; (P) 1.6565; (R1) 1.6605; More... GBP/USD drops sharply today as consolidations from 1.6667 extends. But, as it's staying in a consolidative pattern, intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.6309 support holds and another rally is still expected. Above 1.6667 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is close to 1.6476 next medium term resistance. However, break of 1.6309 will be an early sign of trend reversal and would turn bias to the downside for 1.5853 support instead. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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AUD's Weakness To Persist Amid Economic HeadwindsRecent price movements indicated that any rebound of AUDUSD is short-lived. Although rising inflation in Australia might provide short-term support to AUD, Australia's terms of trade should deteriorate further and downside risks related to Chinese growth should continue to weigh on the Aussie. There's no sign of a reversal of the AUDNZD downtrend as we enter 2014. Instead, the decline has perpetuated amid concerns over China's economic slowdown and speculations of rate hikes in RBNZ. With China's economic reform, which attempts to shift the balance of economic growth from investment to domestic demand, and the growing divergence between Australia and New Zealand on the economic prospects, we expect the downtrend of AUDNZD to continue this year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fed Tapers Further...The Fed's move in January was widely anticipated. It decided to reduce monthly asset purchases by a further US$10B to US $65B, by reducing Treasury purchases to US$ 35B/month and MBS purchases to US$ 30B/month. The recent growth assessment was also upgraded. However, the policy statement was largely unchanged. The decision was made with unanimous support, the first time since June 2011. RBNZ Keeps Powder Dry, Rate Hike Likely in MarchWith 35% chance of rate hike (+25 bps) priced in, the market was initially disappointed by the RBNZ's decision to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in January. The accompanying statement was, however, upbeat and signaled that a rate hike would be coming soon. It is likely that the central bank would increase the policy rate at the March meeting. On the global economic environment, the central bank noted that "improvements in the major economies have required exceptional monetary accommodation and there remains uncertainty about the timing of withdrawal of this stimulus and its effects, especially on emerging market economies". | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped as traders bought back dollar ahead of FOMC rate decision, bids at 1.3650, 1.3635 amd 1.3620 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3580, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3530-50 area as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below). On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3650 and 1.3670-80, buy stop orders are located above 1.3690 and also above 1.3720, however, sell orders are expected from 1.3730 up to 1.3750 (stops above barrier at 1.3750). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Due to Chinese New Year holidays, next Candlestick and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 3rd Feb 2014 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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