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Mid-Day Report: Yen Gains as Impact of Turkish Rate Hike Fades, FOMC NextYen regains some ground in European session today as the impact of Turkey's rate hike quickly fades. The Turkish central bank more than doubled its interest rates, from 4.5% to 10.0% and triggered a rebound in the lira yesterday. Against the dollar, lira once surged more than 3%. But half of the gain was pared today as traders are still worried about the economy. It was noted by analysts that while the rate hike could intimidate lira shorts in near term, it couldn't help attract capital inflow. And, indeed, the rate hike might merely just slow down capital outflows and the decline of lira, which already hit a historical low this year. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 102.53; (P) 102.89; (R1) 103.30; More... USD/JPY's recovered extended to 103.44 but faced some resistance below 4 hours 55 EMA and weakens today. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Note again that near term outlook stays bearish as long as 104.91 resistance holds. And, the whole decline from 105.41 is expected to resume sooner or later. Below 102.51 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 101.76. Break will target 100.61 key support next. Break there will have larger bearish implications and confirm medium term topping at 105.41. |
| FX Outlook 2014 |
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AUD's Weakness To Persist Amid Economic HeadwindsRecent price movements indicated that any rebound of AUDUSD is short-lived. Although rising inflation in Australia might provide short-term support to AUD, Australia's terms of trade should deteriorate further and downside risks related to Chinese growth should continue to weigh on the Aussie. There's no sign of a reversal of the AUDNZD downtrend as we enter 2014. Instead, the decline has perpetuated amid concerns over China's economic slowdown and speculations of rate hikes in RBNZ. With China's economic reform, which attempts to shift the balance of economic growth from investment to domestic demand, and the growing divergence between Australia and New Zealand on the economic prospects, we expect the downtrend of AUDNZD to continue this year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Emergent Market Selloff Triggered by Mix of Domestic and Global FactorsSelloff in emerging markets late last week has hit global financial markets. As investors took profits from risky assets, they parked their capitals in safe-havens, sending Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold, higher. While some attributed the selloff to Fed's tapering and concerns over China's slowdown and potential credit crunch, declines in some emerging market currencies such as Turkish lira and Argentina peso were mainly driven by domestic factors. Yet, coincidence of these factors with concerns over the Fed's tapering and China's disappointing data release might have triggered a bigger impact on the market than on any other occasions. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped as traders bought back dollar ahead of FOMC rate decision, bids at 1.3650, 1.3635 amd 1.3620 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3580, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3530-50 area as well as 1.3500-10 (stops below). On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3650 and 1.3670-80, buy stop orders are located above 1.3690 and also above 1.3720, however, sell orders are expected from 1.3730 up to 1.3750 (stops above barrier at 1.3750). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9000As the greenback found support just above the lower Kumo, suggesting further consolidation would be seen but as long as yesterday's high of 0.9010 holds, mild downside bias remains for another retreat, below 0.8948-50 (current level of the lower Kumo and previous support) would signal top is formed and bring test of 0.8930-35, break there would indicate rebound from 0.8903 has ended and bring retest of this level Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold short entered at 0.8790Despite edging marginally higher to 0.8826, as the Australian dollar has retreated today, retaining our bearishness and weakness to 0.8720-30 is likely, however, break of 0.8700 is needed to suggest the rebound from 0.8660 has possibly ended and bring another fall towards this level. Only a drop below said last week's low would extend recent decline in wave (v) to 0.8640 (61.8% projection of 0.9543-0.8821 measuring from 0.9086) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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