Saturday, January 11, 2014

Action Insight Weekly Report 1-12-14

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Optimism Undone by Shocking NFP, Dollar and Yields Tumbled

While Fed officials might disagree, it only took one poor non-farm payroll report to undo all the optimism over the US economy and more than reversed dollar's recent gains. Based on the solid ISM and ADP reports, markets had higher expectation of the NFP. But eventually, it showed only 74k job growth in December, less than half of consensus of 193k, and well below the most pessimistic forecast by economists. The unemployment rate did show sharp improvement from 7.0% to 6.7%. But that was primarily due to 347k contraction in labor force. This can also be reflected by participation rate dropping back to 62.8%, the lowest level since 1978. The data raised much doubt over the expectation that Fed will continue to taper the asset purchase at every FOMC meeting and end it by the end of this year.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's up trend form 0.9633 re-accelerated last week and surged to as high as 1.0945, taking out 1.0803 long term retracement level firmly. Upside moment remains strong and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rise could be seen but we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from long term falling trend line (now at around 1.1) to bring reversal. Below 1.0837 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0736 resistance turned support. Nonetheless, sustained break of the trend line resistance will have larger bullish implications.

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Suggested Readings

 

The Week in Review and Outlook

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